Saratoga Picks and Analysis August 21

Another solid day for the picks page. Hit the board on 16 of our 24 picks. Hit trifectas in both race 1 and race 4. Our top two picks hit the exacta in 5 of the 8 races picked as well. We’ve been on the board with 69% of our picks this week. Very nice. 

Our Top of the Card performed just alright. A big win however came from one of our “Best Values” with WILD WILLIAM wiring the field in race 6 (closed at 9-2 odds from 6-1 on the ML). Real solid start to the week here and we are looking to keep it going here. Enjoy the breakdown of today’s slate with picks below and good luck to all! 

Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: SILVER TOKEN (2-1) and FAUCI (8-5)

Best Value: DUOPOLY (9-2) and MICROMILLION (9-2)

Live Longshots: BAYTOWN BEAR (30-1) and TARANTA (15-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

Ponies We Like: 7-6-2

First Pick: #7 SILVER TOKEN (2-1) Flashed best speed numbers on the turf among this field. Exits last race with 2nd place result at today’s distance (5.5f) and surface (turf). Has hit the money 4 times out of 5 on the turf and gets the familiar Jose Lezcano aboard (4 races for 3 Places and 1 Show). 

Second Pick: #6 ADVANCED STRATEGY (9-5) Was nosed out for 4th place finish in turf debut last time out (5.5f distance). Gets Joel Rosario aboard once again here. Lasix added and solid recent workout puts this colt in thick of this race. 

Third Pick: #2 FAST GORDON (6-1) Trainer Linda Rice will put this horse on the grass for the first time here. Ran to 5th place in only career race (1m on dirt). Should be able to improve in 2nd start and Rice is in decent spot here. 

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 5-2-3

First Pick: #5 THE ANGRY MAN (9-5) Chalky race here but these top two are above the rest. Has 4 career races with 3 Places and a 4th place finish, always in the thick of it. Gets Luis Saez at the reins in this horse’s return to dirt (2 starts and 1 Place on dirt). 

Second Pick: #2 ASHIHAM (8-5) Deserving of the heavy ML odds here. Has 1 race and 1 Show at this 1 1/8m distance and has performed well in 5 career starts (2 Places and 1 Show). Trainer Todd Pletcher will put a familiar jockey aboard here in John Velazquez (3 races aboard for 4th, 2nd and 3rd places).  

Third Pick: #3 OBSESSED (6-1) The other Todd Pletcher entry will get Irad Ortiz aboard here. This horse has whiffed in 2 career starts but hasn’t run route distance yet. Gained well in debut races and should be able to handle the distance and Pletcher is in good spot for 1st route race. 

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 5-4-2

First Pick: #5 FAUCI (8-5) Has been a top choice for me before and will be again here. Moves up in class from last start but has been good in 2 career starts (1 Win and 1 Place). Has early speed and it is likely Tyler Gaffalione will push out front early. Has Win at this 5.5f distance on turf (last race at KEE). 

Second Pick: #4 SKY’S NOT FALLING (5-1) This will be the first turf affair for this horse but has pedigree that suggests that move should be smooth. In 2 career starts on dirt, he has 1 Win and 1 Show. Will get a jockey upgrade here with Jose Ortiz hopping aboard for the turf debut. 

Third Pick: #2 BAYTOWN BEAR (30-1) Short 6 horse field here and this horse has the most experience in the pack. 5 career starts with 1 Win and 1 Place. Has 2 races on turf and at this distance with 1 Place result. Could be a live one here.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 4-3-8

First Pick: #4 EAGLE ORB (2-1) Only 1 horse with a race under their belt in this 8 horse field. This pony is a 1st time starter for trainer Rudy Rodriguez and will get top tier jockey Irad Ortiz aboard. Solid pedigree here as well. 

Second Pick: #3 SEVEN SEVEN (5-1) Only horse in this field with a race to speak of. Ran to 5th place in debut at 5.5f on dirt. Will be on the dirt today and a small stretch to 6f here. Gets hot jockey Luis Saez aboard again here and should have some improvement with his 2nd career start. 

Third Pick: #8 CITIZEN K (5-2) Another 1st time starter here, this colt running out of the barn of Horacio DePaz. Will get a top tier jockey aboard in Jose Ortiz and pedigree has a STK level winner. 

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 7-6-9-4

First Pick: #7 STANDUP (9-5) Has only run on the turf in 8 career starts (1 Win, 1 Place and 3 Shows). Joel Rosario will hop aboard after riding to Show at this distance and surface last time out. This horse has been successful at this 5.5f distance, hitting the board 2 out of 3 tries. 

Second Pick: #6 MORE LIKE IT (9-2) Will move up in class here following a Win last time at this 5.5f distance on turf. Has also only raced on turf in 4 career starts with 1 Win and 1 Place. This horse has improved with each race and will get Jose Ortiz aboard again for this one. 

Third Pick: #9 MY MAN FLINTSTONE (5-1) Consistently pushes to the front with early speed which should fit this 5.5f sprint. Tyler Gaffalione will take the reins for 4th race (3 Places in 3 previous mounts). Speed and shortening up in distance should be a good combo for this horse today. 

Race 6

Ponies We Like:  4-6-8

First Pick: #4 DUOPOLY (9-2) Saw this horse run live to a Win at Monmouth on July 3 (1 1/16 m on turf like today’s race). Trainer Chad Brown will bring this filly up 87 North and move up in class for this start. Will get an upgrade at jockey to Irad Ortiz for this race as well. 

Second Pick: #6 PRINCESS CAROLINE (6-5) Another Chad Brown entry here, this filly will get familiar Javier Castellano for this race. Castellano has been aboard for both career starts so far (1 Win and 1 Show). Will drop down from G3 STK level race last time out but that was in November 2019 so will be coming in off layoff. 

Third Pick: #8 TARANTA (15-1) Could be a live one here. No stranger to hitting the board in her 6 career starts (1 Win and 3 Places). Will be the first stretch out further than 1m but has posted solid numbers and has been strictly a turf horse in her career. Worth a shot at these odds. 

*Breakdown/analysis to be added. PICKS STILL BELOW*

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 3-4-2-5

First Pick: #3 JUMP FOR JOY (9-5)

Second Pick: #4 I’LL TAKE THE CAKE (3-1)

Third Pick: #2 LADY BY CHOICE (12-1)

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 4-9-2

First Pick: #4 FREEWHEELER (6-5)

Second Pick: #9 CRACK SHOT (3-1)

Third Pick: #2 ADIOS AMIGOS (12-1)

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 3-6-7

First Pick: #3 MICROMILLION (9-2)

Second Pick: #6 GAELIC GOLD (6-5)

Third Pick: #7 KEPT WAITING (5-2)