Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: BELLEZA (7-5), SAYYAAF (8-5) and ZACCAPA (5-2)

Best Value: POSITIVE SKEW (5-1) and THERAPIST (5-1)

Live Longshots: CLENCH (10-1) and TOO EARLY (12-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

STEEPLECHASE. NO PICKS

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 4-8-7

First Pick: #4 BELLEZA (7-5) One of two heavy favorites that seem to be above the rest in this race. Whiffed on turf in debut and has run on dirt for 2 Place finishes with better speed shown in both. Trained by Linda Rice and gets Irad Ortiz aboard here for a race this horse will be taking a small class drop for. Should improve in the 2nd race off the layoff and ran strong in her 2020 debut (2nd) at Belmont in 6.5f race on the dirt.

Second Pick: #8 MISS ROSS (12-1) This filly has more experience than the majority of the field here with 11 career starts (1 Place and 4 Shows). She has shown best results and speed at this 6f distance (6 races/1p/3s). Had Dylan Davis aboard for Show last time out at Belmont on July 4 (6f on dirt).

Third Pick: #7 CROSS KEYS (8-5) The other heavy ML favorite here. Flashed some good early speed in her debut race to 4th place finish (against better field). Drops in class for this race and gets Javier Castellano aboard again as well. Has some of the best speed among this field.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 9-6-4

First Pick: #9 POSITIVE SKEW (5-1) Experienced horse that has only raced on turf in his career (10 races/1w/1p/2s). Will get Joel Rosario at the reins for the second consecutive race, ran to Place last time out at Belmont (1 1/16m on turf). Showed some of the best turf speed in this field last time out and improved upon 2020 debut as well.

Second Pick: #6 STORMY DERBY DAY (4-1) Will be putting on blinkers and getting jockey Jose Ortiz (major upgrade) for the first time here. Has 1 Win in 4 career starts (all on the turf). Will likely look to be towards the front of the pack early. Speed has improved from April showing to the last race in June.

Third Pick: #4 FIVE ALARM ROBIN (5-2) Comes into first race since February but that was on dirt (did not finish race). Has 1 Win in 3 starts at this distance and has been solid enough on the turf (7 races/1w/1p/1s). Comes in off layoff but has money on turf and experience at the distance.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 1/1A-6-4

First Pick: # 1/1A (6-5) Todd Pletcher double entry here for Shadwell Stable.

Second Pick: #6 VICARAGE (7-2) Hot combo so far at this Saratoga meet with trainer Christoph Clement and jockey Joel Rosario. Hasn’t raced since May 23 (Place at 1m on dirt) and will be stretching out to 1 ⅛ m here. Gained well throughout the last race and should be OK on the stretch out here.

Third Pick: #4 LUCKY ASSET (5-2) Only 3 career starts but has 2 Place finishes and ran to 4th finish in the other race. Has been beaten by SAVVY in two races and no SAVVY in this race today. Stretches out here to route (7f and 6f experience) but has a stalking style and gains position well throughout the race. Should be good for the distance here.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 1-7-4

First Pick: #1 WAR CANOE (8-5) STK level race here ($85K) and this Chad Brown trained turf horse should be a contender here, 29 races on turf (6w/5p/9s). Has also shown good money at this distance in 16 starts with 3 Wins, 3 Places and 6 Shows. Was beaten by the #4 in this field last time out but should improve in the 2nd race off layoff here.

Second Pick: #7 VORTEX ROAD (8-1) Finished to a Place result last time out in a 1 ⅛ m race on turf at Belmont. Gets Kendrick Carmouche aboard for the second race in a row as well. Successful on the turf in 22 starts (6w/7p/1s) and this distance has been money as well (8 races to 3 Wins and 4 Places).

Third Pick: #4 CLASSIC LADY (7-5) Other heavy favorite here and beat out the #1 horse last time out as mentioned. Hot combo here at this Saratoga meet so far with Christoph Clement training and Joel Rosario taking the reins (aboard for Place last race). Almost never missed the money on turf (13 starts/3w/5p/3s) and hasn’t missed the money yet at this distance in 5 starts (1w/2p/2s).

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 3-4-5

First Pick: #3 PETE’S PLAY CALL (5-2) Lots of experience for this Michael Maker trained horse (40 starts/10w/8p/6s). Gets Irad Ortiz aboard for the first time in this class drop here. Has run well at this 6.5f distance (10 starts/2w/5p/2s) and been much better on the dirt in his career (31 starts/18 times in the money).

Second Pick: #4 CLENCH (10-1) Comes into 2nd race off the layoff and good chance for improvement from this Brad Cox trained horse (27%/59% in that spot). Gets back to a familiar jockey in Jose Lezcano as well (2019-20, 5 races for 2 Wins, 1 Place, 1 Show). Has been good in his career of 15 starts with 3w/3p/5s.

Third Pick: #5 AMERICAN POWER (3-1) Gets Jose O at the reins here (success in past) and trained by Linda Rice. Came in 4th last time out at 7f distance while finishing to a Place in start before that (6f distance like today). Jose O was aboard for that Place result. 1 Win and 2 Places in 4 starts at this distance and has been successful in 24 career starts (7w/6p/2s).

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 4-10-8-5

First Pick: #4 SAYYAAF (8-5) Comes in from a race on the turf at 6f and Place finish on June 12 at Belmont. Was in lead at the stretch pole, has tons of early speed and should appreciate the 5.5f sprint today. 9 career starts for 2 Wins, 4 Places and 1 Show and has hit money in 6 of 8 races on the turf for Chad Brown. Will also get Javier Castellano aboard (8 races together, 2 Wins/3 Places/1 Show).

Second Pick: #10 KITTEN’S CAT (4-1) First time racing for trainer Linda Race here (good spot by the numbers) and will get Jose O aboard (rode to win last time out). 34 career starts with 6 Wins, 7 Places and 8 Shows. Has been consistent in career and on the turf as well, hitting the money in 19 of 28 races on the surface.

Third Pick: #8 VICI (8-1) Experienced horse for trainer David Donk (41 races/4w/12p/9s). Has been good at this 5.5f distance in 11 starts (2w/3p/2) and cutback from recent 7f races should benefit here. Has hit the money in 17 of 30 races on the turf as well.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 8-6-9-2

#9 SCRATCHED. NEW ORDER: 8-6-2

First Pick: #8 DANNY CALIFORNIA (4-1) One of the only horses here today that has experience at this 1 ⅛ m distance (4 starts/2 Wins and 1 Place). Trained by Orlando Noda and Joel Rosario will grab the reins for a horse that has hit money 4 times in 6 tries this year. 26 career starts for 4 Wins, 3 Places and 4 Shows as well.

Second Pick: #6 BLACKJACK DAVEY (2-1) Linda Rice will put Irad Ortiz aboard for the second race in a row (Win last time out). Has only 2 starts in his career for 1 Win. Debut race was 6f and 8th place followed by stretch out to 1 1/16m in the last race and Win there. Will move up in class here but has good connections and distance should fit well.

Third Pick: #9 TOO EARLY (12-1) We will go to another Linda Rice entry here. This time little longer on the ML odds and Jose Lezcano will be aboard here for the fourth race in a row (6th, 2nd, 1st). Has 4 career starts so far and whiffed in 2 turf tries. Other 2 races have produced a Win and Place on dirt. Moves up today but has a good resume here to be a live one.

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 2-8-4-7

First Pick: #2 THERAPIST (5-1) Both the trainer (Clement) and jockey (Irad Ortiz) have had hot starts to this meet at the Spa. Irad has been a familiar rider in the last 4 races (3rd, 4th, 4th, 1st). Won in race last time out on June 7 at Belmont (7f on turf). This gelding has 8 Wins and 4 Shows in 17 career starts and all of those were on the turf as well.

Second Pick: #8 DEVAMANI (9-5) Chad Brown trained horse will get familiar Joel Rosario aboard here (2 Places in last 3 together). Has hit the money 14 times in 20 races on the turf and both times at this distance (1 Win/1 Place). Should appreciate the drop in class here today as well.

Third Pick: #4 JUST HOWARD (10-1) Major upgrade on the reins with the switch to Jose O here. This Graham Motion trained horse has 10 races at this distance for 4 Wins and 3 Shows. Has also been solid in its career on the turf (21 races/6w/1p/3s). Will also be dropping down in class here.

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 1-8-2

#8 SCRATCHED. NEW ORDER: 1-2-4

First Pick: #1 ZACCAPA (5-2) Brad Cox will put Luis Saez aboard this talented filly (4 career starts/3 Places). Has clocked some of the best speed among this field today and that helps for this 5.5f sprint on the turf. All 4 career starts have come on the turf and Placed last time out in a similar class race (7f on turf).

Second Pick: #8 AMERICAN GODDESS (6-1) Has 1 place in 5 career starts (all on the turf) for trainer Wesley Ward. Has solid position at stretch pole but has not been able to finish as well at 7f and 1m distances. The cutback to 5.5f should be helpful here for this filly.

Third Pick: #2 LETTHEMEATCAKE (9-2) Upgrade at jockey here with Joel Rosario taking the reins for today. Has early speed and usually gets to the front of the pack early in the race. 4 career starts and 2 Shows (5th and 4th in other two). Has 1 Show in 2 tries on the turf as well.

Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 29