Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: VOTING AGREEMENT (2-1), SNICKET (5-2) and MOUNT TRAVERS (7-2)

Best Value: HETTY G. (5-1) JILL’S A HOT MESS (5-1) and ELLE M’A SOURI (6-1)

Live Longshots: HENNI PENNY (12-1) and FLAP JACK (12-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

Ponies We Like: 5-4-3

First Pick: #5 ASSUME (4-5) Heavy ML favorite in this baby race to open the Friday card. One of the few with experience in this field and has 2 Show results in 3 career starts. Trained by Todd Pletcher who is in a good spot by the numbers dropping classes here. Manny Franco will be aboard this horse with early speed and moves well on the dirt.

Second Pick: #4 HANDS UP (5-2) Ricardo Santana Jr. hops aboard a horse who is also dropping down in class here. 5 races and only 1 Place in career but has had better form in 2020 than previous starts. Good chance to improve in 3rd race off the layoff for trainer Bauer as well.

Third Pick: #3 QUANTUM COMPUTING (10-1) Kendrick Carmouche will hop aboard a horse who has always run to respectable finishes in 3 starts despite no money (5th, 5th, 4th). Has some early speed to get upfront early with Kendrick aboard as well. Trainer Danny Gargan is in a decent spot by the numbers here also.

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 5-1-3

First Pick: #5 HOT LITTLE HONEY (4-1) Irad Ortiz takes the reins after a hot day on Thursday. Michael Maker trains this filly who will drop down 2 classes for today (good #s spot for Maker). Has 6 career starts with 2 Wins and 1 Show along with 4 races and 1w/1s at this 6f distance. Solid speed here and should be better in 2nd race off the layoff here.

Second Pick: #1 KINKY SOX (9-5) Lower connections here but jockey Eric Cancel has ridden this horse the last 3 starts out for 1 Win and 2 Places. Has some great dirt speed among this field and form coming into today’s race is solid. This one has hit the money in 8 of 13 career races as well.

Third Pick: #3 HETTY G. (5-1) Scratched out of a race on Thursday to run in this one. Also switches (upgrade) to Ricardo Santana Jr. at jockey today for trainer WesleyWard. Has been a much better horse in 2020 (3 starts/1w/1p) and has been good at this distance (5 races/2w/1p).

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 6-2-4

First Pick: #6 VOTING AGREEMENT (2-1) This is a 5.5f race on the turf and we will go to trainer Chad Brown with jockey Javier Castellano aboard. Won here at Saratoga last year, this distance and surface along with a Show result in her 2020 debut at Belmont (6f on turf). Best turf speed in this field here today and that will help at sprinting distance.

Second Pick: #2 PEACEFUL (8-5) Good spot in 2nd race off the layoff for this Michael Stidham horse. He will put top tier rider Tyler Gaffalione aboard for this race. Faced a similar pack in the last race and finished to a Place finish at Belmont (6f on turf also). Has the speed and should be in duel with the #6 here.

Third Pick: #4 HENNI PENNY (12-1) Could have a “live” one going here. The field falls off a little after those top two above and we like this 12-1 filly. John Velazquez will take the reins (Won in only race aboard). Has yet to miss the money in 4 turf starts (1w/1p/2s). If Velazquez can push her earlier here then she can be a factor.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 5-8-6

First Pick: #5 MALARKEY (7-2) All around good spots for this horse here. 20 career starts for 3w/6p/2s. Trained by Linda Rice and will get top rider Jose Ortiz aboard here (rode to Place last time out in a similar race). 3 times in the money in 4 starts and should be a good spot by the numbers for trainer Linda Rice here as well.

Second Pick: #8 BLUNT FORCE (3-1) This horse will move up in class here for trainer Thomas Amoss. Great numbers on the dirt and speed is all around near the top of this field. Has been solid in 2020 (5 starts with 3 in the money) and the same marks at this distance as well. Definite contender here.

Third Pick: #6 STAY FOND (5-2) Another horse in this field with great dirt speed and at this distance. Will move up in class for trainer Michael Miceli but 32 career starts (8w/3p/9s). No stranger to getting into the money and has raced to Win and Show in the last two times out, both of those contests with jockey Davis aboard as well.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 6-8-5-9

*# 8 has been SCRATCHED. NEW ORDER: 6-5-9

First Pick: #6 JILL’S A HOT MESS (5-1) Another baby race here with inexperience and first timers running at 5.5f on the dirt. This horse has 2 races already and 1 Place result in those tries. Both of those came at this distance and surface with solid speed to show for it. We will go with the experience here.

Second Pick: #8 NO MO’ SPENDING (9-2) Finished 7th in debut for trainer Ian Wilkes. Javier Castellano will take the reins for a horse who showed some decent speed numbers in that debut race. Should be able to improve here in her 2nd career start.

Third Pick: #5 GOING GOING GONE (8-1) This filly also showed up last time out in 5th place debut finish. Rudy Rodriguez will throw the blinkers on this horse and Irad Ortiz will take the reins (upgrade). Great spots by the numbers here for trainer Rudy Rod.

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 9-1-6

First Pick: #9 CAP DE CREUS (1-1) Heavy ML favorite here for trainer Todd Pletcher and only horse in this field with experience at this 1 3/8m distance (2 races/1 Place). Irad Ortiz takes the reins on a filly who runs well on the turf (10 starts and 6 times in the money). Comes in with solid form and speed on the turf for the last few races.

Second Pick: #1 ELLE M’A SOURI (6-1) Tyler Gaffalione is a familiar rider for this filly (3 races/1w/1s). Moves up in class here for trainer Cherie DeVaux and has been successful on the turf in 6 career starts on the surface (1w/2p/1s). Solid value for her resume plus speed and ability running on the turf.

Third Pick: #6 COILEAN BAWN (5-1) Hot combo here with trainer Christophe Clemente and jockey Joel Rosario. This horse won last time out at Belmont (1 ¼ m on turf) and had Rosario at the reins there (Place in other start together). Moves up in class here but has hit the money in 4 of her 7 showings on the turf.

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 8-10-7

First Pick: #8 SNICKET (5-2) Hot connections here again with Clemente putting Joel Rosario aboard (2 previous times ridden for 2 Places). Has shown great speed in her 3 career starts (2 Places) and should be heavily bet again here today.

Second Pick: #10 QUANTITATIVBREEZIN (3-1) Brad Cox trained horse comes off a Place finish in her debut (6f on turf). Javier Castellano will take the reins here in a great spot for Cox in 2nd turf races with his horses. Inexperienced field and this filly has good speed and pace on the turf.

Third Pick: #7 MAGNOLIA’S LADY (9-2) Linda Rice is in a good spot for this turf sprint and puts Jose Lezcano aboard here. Good showing last time out with Show result and had good speed to the front in a 6f race on turf. Improved from debut race to 2nd race both in result and speed, good chance to take another step forward today.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 1-5-7-9

First Pick: #1 MOUNT TRAVERS (7-2) Comes into today from Place result at Belmont on June 5 (6f on dirt like today). Had Jose O aboard for that race and will again today for trainer Linda Rice. Speed was solid last race and is in a good spot in a sprint for this trainer. 9 career starts for 2 Wins, 2 Places and 2 Shows along with hitting the money in both races at this distance.

Second Pick: #5 CHATEAU (8-1) Other Ortiz brother Irad, hot off multiple wins on Thursday, will take the reins in a jockey upgrade for this horse. Trainer Rob Altras is in a decent spot here in the 2nd race off the layoff and with this horse. Drops down in class here and has the early speed to do well at this 6f distance (10 career tries for 2w/2p/1s).

Third Pick: #7 FREE ENTERPRISE (7-2) Javier Castellano hops aboard for a familiar horse (5 races together for 2 Wins and 2 Places). Trained by Chad Brown who is now chasing Clemente to defend his Saratoga trainer’s title. Has 2 Place finishes in 2 races at this distance and has been successful in his 7 start career (2w/3p/1s).

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 8-3-2

First Pick: #8 TURNED ASIDE (2-1) Not the favorite despite heavy odds already on the ML. Trained by Linda Rice, this is a turf horse with success and speed. 6 career starts for 2 Wins, 2 Places and 1 Show (all on turf). Has yet to race at this distance but has early speed and is towards the front of the pack each time out, this small move from 6f to 5.5f should be helpful if anything. Familiar jockey Jose Lezcano takes the reins, he has ridden this colt to 2w/1p/1s in 5 races.

Second Pick: #3 FLAP JACK (12-1) Ride upgrade here for trainer Jack Sisterson, who will go to Tyler Gaffalione for this STK level race. This horse is moving up in class for this one but also will be adding blinkers on for the first time. Ran to a Win last time out (6f on dirt) and will be switching back to the turf today (1 start/1 Place). Has improved each race and gets the best jockey it has had aboard in his career.

Third Pick: #2 JACK AND NOAH (1-1) Has only raced on the turf for trainer Mark Casse and has done it successfully in 6 career starts (3 Wins and 1 Place). Finished with a Place last time out at Belmont (6f on turf) and had John Velazquez aboard. Will again here today for a horse who has some of the better speed in this field and turf experience to back it up.

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 3-9-1

First Pick: #3 BRICCO (3-1) Has had 2 career starts and hit the money in both of them (1 Place and 1 Show). Both of them were run on the turf and a small cutback to 1m today shouldn’t be an issue. This gelding also has had Luiz Saez aboard for both of those races and will again here today. Good spot in 2nd race off the layoff for trainer James Bond.

Second Pick: #9 GOLDEN IDOL (15-1) Gets an upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione at the reins. Comes in off 1m turf race at Belmont on June 6 (finished 5th). Showed some good speed and gained position throughout that race (best speed has been on turf).

Third Pick: #1 AINTFUNKYNOW (2-1) Trained by Michael Maker and gets Irad Ortiz aboard (3rd and 4th finishes last two times out). Among the fastest in this field on the turf and has yet to throw a clunker on the grass in 4 races (4th, 4th, 3rd, 4th).

Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 24