Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 23

A positive Thursday from these pages. I do wish I went with some of my 2nd picks though. My 1st Picks won outright 3 times and 2nd Picks won 6 times. Tough but we move onto the next day. Looking forward to this Friday card that includes the Lake George (G3) being run in race 9. Best of luck to everyone.

Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: DARK MONEY (1-1) AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM (3-1)

Best Value: EPICUREAN (5-1) GAILHORSEWIND (7-2)

Live Longshots: FLUFFY SOCKS (10-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

Ponies We Like: 8-5-7

First Pick: #8 BUCKINGHAM PRINCE (7-5) Only horse in this field with any races on their resume. Improved in her 2nd career start with a Place finish at Ellis Park a few weeks back. Flashed speed to the front in that race and will have the aggressive Luis Saez aboard for this 5.5 furlong bout.

Second Pick: #5 NOT YET CHARLIE (12-1) One of two entries for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. Both ponies are 1st timers. Joel Rosario will hop aboard here.

Third Pick: #7 STOLEN BASE (4-1) We will go with the 1st timer from trainer Michael Maker here. He will go with Tyler Gaffalione at the reins.

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 5-10-9

First Pick: #5 AWSUM ROAR (9-2) Has hit the money in 26 of 33 career tries on the turf. This 7 year old is still doing it in 2021 with 7 starts for 1 Win, 4 Places and 2 Shows. There are a few ponies that are speedier in this race but this horse could close into a broken down pace.

Second Pick: #10 TIME LIMIT (9-5) This Michael Maker trained filly is the favorite and sure to catch more money. Ran for Show finish in 6 furlong contest at Belmont last month but was chased down while in the lead late. Cut back to 5.5 furlongs here should help. Has 1 Win and 1 Show in 3 races when Irad Ortiz Jr. is aboard.

Third Pick: #9 KINKY SOX (10-1) Will move up in class off a Win last month. Another pony that could make a move late. Has hit the money in 8 of 11 starts on the turf along with 1 Place and 1 Show in 2 tries at this distance.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 2-9-6

First Pick: #2 MUBTADAA (7-2) Todd Pletcher brings this horse back for another turf race at 1 mile. Finished with Place result last month at Belmont at same distance/surface. Manny Franco was aboard for that one and will be here.

Second Pick: #9 REALM OF LAW (2-1) This Chad Brown horse was beaten out by our 1st Pick in that Belmont. Hasn’t missed the money in 3 career starts (1 Place and 2 Shows) but also failed to win as a favorite in all 3 starts. Jose Ortiz will get the mount.

Third Pick: #6 CHARLESTON STRONG (9-2) Speedy horse should be led to the front early by jockey Luis Saez. Has improved with each race and now throws on the blinkers today. 3 career starts on the grass with 2 Show results.

Race 4

***#5 SCRATCH---NEW PICKS: 8-2-3***

First Pick: #8 DARK MONEY (1-1) Deserving favorite and can’t be ignored here. If he runs his best race, none of the ponies in this field can catch him. Good #s off the claim for trainer George Weavers. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. just rode this pony to a Win at Belmont last month and hops aboard here today.

Second Pick: #5 LOST IN MANHATTAN (8-1) Comes back to the dirt where this horse has hit the money in 6 of 11 tries. Has been hitting the money all year in 6 starts (3 Wins and 2 Shows). Upgrades to Tyler Gaffalione at jockey for this 7 furlong affair.

Third Pick: #2 JUST RIGHT (9-2) Jose Ortiz will hop aboard a horse that he is familiar with. Class drop for this gelding as well. Don’t think he can win here but can hit the money.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 3-8-5

First Pick: #3 GAILHORSEWIND (7-2) One of a few that ran in a 6 furlong turf bout June 3 at Belmont. We liked what we saw in that Place finish, beat out by a Chad Brown horse. Jose Lezcano was on the mount for that money and will get the call from trainer Linda Rice again today.

Second Pick: #8 SIX FEET APART (5-2) Finished in 4th place behind our 1st and 3rd picks in this race. This Wesley Ward trained horse was beaten by the nosehairs for a Show result. We like the shorter distance to 5.5 furlongs here and familiar jockey John Velazquez riding.

Third Pick: #5 TUSCAN QUEEN (3-1) Show finish in that Belmont Race. Should be able to best the others in this field. Gets Jose Ortiz at the reins once again as well.

Race 6

***#4 SCRATCH---NEW PICKS: 7-5-6***

First Pick: #7 AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM (3-1) Drop in class for Michael Maker trained horse. Should be able to handle this group of foes. Repeat mount for Joel Rosario who rode this pony to a Show last time out.

Second Pick: #4 KENTUCKY GHOST (9-2) Has been best on the turf in 10 starts with 3 Wins, 3 Places and 1 Show. Runs well dropping into this class is in good form this year. 4 starts for 2 Wins and 1 Place.

Third Pick: #5 OPRY (8-1) Will slide this Todd Pletcher trained horse in here. Fairly open field in this turf bout. Luis Saez will hop aboard, rode this horse to Show result back in April at Keeneland. Should be in the thick of things.

Race 7

***#10 SCRATCH---NEW PICKS: 6-8-1***

First Pick: #6 DEE BO (6-1) This name running on a Friday afternoon? Can’t ignore that. Legendary trainer Steve Asmussen will put trusted Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard this pony. Has continued to improve each race. A Win and Place in 2 most recent starts last month.

Second Pick: #10 AIR SHOW (8-5) Deserving of the favorite role. Has 5 starts at 6 furlongs on the dirt for 1 Win, 1 Place and 2 Shows. Trainer Thomas Amoss will upgrade his jockey with Jose Ortiz getting the call.

Third Pick: #8 DEPUTY FLAG (5-1) Drop in class for Rudy Rod trained horse. Not likely a threat to win but has the early speed and Luis Saez aboard here. Should be upfront early to give a good chance to hit the money.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 3-8-7

First Pick: #3 QUICKFLASH (5-1) Has run his best races at 7 furlongs on the dirt. 1 Place and 1 Show in 2 tries. Gets Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard a pony that has hit the board in 5 of 6 starts on this surface.

Second Pick: #8 DEVIL’S CODE (4-1) Another horse that has run his best races at this distance, 2 starts for 1 Win and 1 Place. Has been fit in 2021 in 4 starts with 1 Win, 1 Place and 1 Show.

Third Pick: #7 JUDGE N JURY (5-1) Don’t love taking horses off big layoffs but trainer Danny Gargan has good #s here. Gets lasix for this start and Luis Saez will hop aboard. 2 career starts with 1 Win and 1 Show.

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 5-3-6

First Pick: #5 JOUSTER (7-2) If this Todd Pletcher horse can get loose then watch out. Luis Saez will hop aboard and has Won on this pony 3 times before. This filly has 5 tries on the grass with 3 Wins and 1 Place.

Second Pick: #3 FLUFFY SOCKS (10-1) It is the Chad Brown open, as the trainer has 4 entries in this Lake George G3. Going to take a shot at a longer odds pony here. All 7 career starts have come on the grass with 3 Wins and 2 Places. Also 2 Wins in 2 tries at the 1 mile distance. Joel Rosario will hop aboard and he is heating up at this meet.

Third Pick: #6 AMY C (9-2) Why not another Chad Brown horse? Play the odds. Won last race and will get a repeat mount with Irad Ortiz Jr.

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 3-1/1A-7

First Pick: #3 EPICUREAN (5-1) One of two entries for trainer Wesley Ward in this 5.5 furlong finale on the turf. Cut back in distance should help this filly that has 1 Show in 2 starts on the grass. Irad Ortiz Jr. will hop aboard.

Second Pick: #1/1A PAIRING (9-5) Luis Saez and Tyler Gaffalione will split the double entry from trainer George Weaver. Both horses have speed to best this group. The 1 THRILL is coming in from 11 month layoff.

Third Pick: #7 CODE NAME LISE (8-1) Going to take a shot with a 1st timer from trainer Christophe Clemente. Filly looks to be bred for the turf. We will trust Clemente in this spot and in a race that didn’t have many great options.