Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 23

Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money:  FINANCIALSTABILITY (2-1) and HONEST MISCHIEF (8-5)

Best Value: INVEST (6-1) and NEW FRONTIER (8-1)

Live Longshots: MY ROXY GIRL (15-1) and MINE THE COIN (10-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

Ponies We Like:

NO PICKS

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 4-6-8

*#4 SCRATCED. Now 6-8-2*

First Pick: #4 INVEST (6-1) Major jockey upgrade here to Joel Rosario for a horse with some speed and especially on the dirt (9 starts/1w/3p/2s). Slight cutback in distance here should be helpful with his speed. Trainer Avila is in good spot numbers wise 2nd race after claiming. 11 career starts for 2w/4p/2s as well. 

Second Pick: #6 THOMAS SHELBY (4-1) Wesley Ward will be dropping this entry two classes here and has hit 38% wins in 16 starts in that spot. Last race was at Churchill on May 23 (8th) but gets upgrade at the reins here with Irad Ortiz hopping aboard. 9 career starts for 2 Wins, 1 Place and 2 Shows.  

Third Pick: #8 NORTHERN HAZE (10-1) Luis Cardenas takes the reins for the first time aboard this horse, trained by Michael Miceli. Has been speedy and successful at this 6f distance (4 races/2w/1s) and had 8 career starts for 2 Wins and 2 Shows. This is a good spot for the trainer in the 2nd race after claiming along with good numbers taking the blinkers off as well. 

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 7-6-3

If moved to Dirt: Same order of picks

First Pick: #7 LOST LAKE (9-2) Only horse with a race in their career. Finished 5th in 4.5f race on dirt at Monmouth on July 4. Stretches out to 1 1/16m and now on the turf, but the pedigree has produced turf winners. Jose O hops aboard in a major upgrade for trainer Graham Motion. 

Second Pick: #6 PLUM ALI (5-1) Going to a successful connection here for this 1st time filly. Joel Rosario will jockey for trainer Christophe Clemente here (8 races/5 money last 2 weeks). Horse comes from pedigree that should fit on the grass here and with a trainer is solid with turf starts. 

Third Pick: #3 MO NORMAL (5-2) Another 1st timer here comes from Sire UNCLE MO. We will go to another Clemente trained horse here. Irad Ortiz will take the reins as well.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 2-1-6

If moved to Dirt: 2-1-6-3

First Pick: #2 DIXIE CANNON (9-2) Ships in from Laurel Park for this $100k STK level race. Will get an upgrade at jockey to Jose O and a good chance to improve in her 2nd race off the layoff. Solid in 5 career starts (all on turf) for 2 Wins and 1 Show. Has 1 Win in 2 starts at this distance as well. 

Second Pick: #1 FRESCO (1-1) Heavy ML favorite here and comes in with strong form (3 starts, 1 Place and 1 Show). All of those races came on turf for the Clemente trained filly. Irad Ortiz takes the reins after 4th and 2nd finishes aboard the last two times out. Good speed and especially on the turf among this field. 

Third Pick: #6 NICKY SCISSORS (7-2) Comes in from 5 month layoff and has yet to run on turf and has yet to run for trainer Brad Cox. Pedigree seems alright for turf and this is a talented horse regardless (3 career starts for 1 Win and 1 Place). Javier Castellano will hop aboard for this horse’s turf debut and trainer Cox has solid numbers in that spot and with first time starters for him. 

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 3-2-4-8

First Pick: #3 NEW FRONTIER (6-1) Michael Maker will put top tier rider Tyler Gaffalione aboard here for a horse that has early speed for this 6f sprint. Will be returning to the dirt where this horse is 4 for 4 hitting the money (fast dirt). Add to that the 8 for 9 in the money numbers at this distance and solid career success in 16 starts with 3 Places and 6 Shows. Good chance to be forwardly placed if ready to go. 

Second Pick: #2 O’TROUBLE (7-2) 2 career starts for 2 Show results and had John Velazquez aboard for both (will be again today). Showed some good speed last time out at 7f but was on or near the lead the entire race so the cutback shouldn’t be an issue at all. 

Third Pick: #4 AHEAD OF PLAN (5-2) Chad Brown will put Jose O aboard here and that is usually a solid connection. 11 months off for this horse that has 3 career starts and 2 Places. Tried turf last race out but finished 5th. Has been better on dirt surfaces regardless of condition, 2 races and 2 Place finishes (1 for 1 in the money at this distance as well). 

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 1-7-5

If moved to Dirt: 2-4-6

First Pick: #1 BALON ROSE (8-5) All 7 career starts for trainer Chad Brown have come on the turf for 1 Win and 3 Place finishes. Has solid turf speed and should improve in the 2nd race off the layoff as well. Gets Javier Castellano aboard, these two have 2 races for a Win and Place together. 

Second Pick: #7 JOYOUS TIMES (12-1) Trainer Lerman is just OK but gets top tier rider Tyler Gaffalione at the reins here. Debuted in 2020 and has had solid form in 6 starts (all on turf) with 2 Wins and 2 Shows. Also has hit the money 3 times in 5 tries at this distance. Gaffalione is an upgrade and could be a live one on the turf. 

Third Pick: #5 BAREEQA (3-1) Horse with great speed on the turf paired with tons of experience (36 of 44 career starts on the turf). Has hit money in 19 of those 36 turf races and 25 of 44 career races. Solid enough connections here with Irad Ortiz aboard for Danny Gargan. 

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 3-10-8

*#8 SCRATCHED. Now 3-10-5

First Pick: #3 FIERCE LADY (9-2) One of the fastest on dirt in this open field but has top speed at this 6.5f distance. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez will put Joel Rosario (upgrade) aboard so the connections are good here as well. 6 career starts (all on fast dirt) for 2w/2p/1s and has 1 Win in 2 races at this distance. 

Second Pick: #10 BERTRANDA (9-2) Horse with some impressive speed figures on dirt overall (best in this field). Irad Ortiz will take the reins for trainer Kantamarci. Comes in with some great form in 2020 (4 races/1w/2p/1s) and overall career success (30 starts/6w/10p/10s). Has the early speed and position to be able to dictate how the trip will go. 

Third Pick: #8 MY ROXY GIRL (15-1) Linda Rice in a good spot for this sprint and puts Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard for it. 9 starts at this distance for 7 moneys (2w/4p/1s). Has 38 career starts as well and 8 Wins, 11 Places and 6 Shows. No stranger to hitting the money here. If this horse is ready to go then should have a say in this open field. 

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 3-4-9

If moved to the Dirt: 3-9-6

First Pick: #3 UNION COLONEL (4-1) Field of inexperience for the most part and this horse has good success in 5 career starts (3 Places and 1 Show). Has solid speed on the turf and dirt, hitting the money on both. Tyler Gaffalione will take the reins for the third race in a row (2 Places in 2 previous). Trained by Mark Casse as well. 

Second Pick: #4 FRENCH REEF (2-1) Trusted connections here for horse in second start of his career here (6th in debut). Ran with good speed in debut with Javier Castellano aboard and will be again today. Forgot to mention, this gelding is trained by Chad Brown and great spots all around here (2nd career race and turf start numbers). 

Third Pick: #9 ITS A WRAP (3-1) Hasn’t had a clunker yet in his career (on dirt or turf). Manuel Franco has been aboard for all 3 career starts (dirt-4th, dirt-3rd and turf-2nd). Speed numbers have been steady and moving from 6f to 5.5f could be positive here for horse always in the money hitting the stretch poles. 

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 3-4-6

First Pick: #3 ADMIRAL LYNCH (4-1) Solid form thus far in 2020 (3 races/2p/1s) for this with early speed in a 6.5f race here today. Overall has been successful as well in 16 career starts with 3 Wins, 5 Places and 5 Shows. Always upfront in the pack for trainer Michael Maker, who will connect with jockey Irad Ortiz here (Place and Show in two previous trips aboard). 

Second Pick: #4 HONEST MISCHIEF (8-5) Chad Brown and Javier Castellano again here for a horse dropping class for this one. 7 career starts and only missed the money once (3w/2p/1s). 2 races at this distance for 1 Win and 1 Show. Comes in off a June 6 race at Churchill against better and brings some of the best dirt speed in this field to the race today. 

Third Pick: #6 CAPTAIN SCOTTY (9-2) Peter Miller ships in here and puts Manuel Franco aboard. This horse should appreciate a return to dirt today as he has had success in 12 career starts (4w/3p/2s). Whiffed on the turf in 2 tries and has much better speed on the dirt. Usually close to the front with speed when on the dirt and has 2 Places in 2 races at this distance. 

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 11-9-6

*#9 SCRATCHED. Now 11-6-3

First Pick: #11 FINANCIALSTABILITY (2-1) Top connections here with trainer Chad Brown and jockey Jose Ortiz. No clunkers in his career of 7 starts (1w/2p/2s) and has had 4 runs on fast dirt (1w/1p/2s). One of the best speedsters in this field on dirt and Ortiz has enjoyed success in 5 trips aboard (3rd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th).

Second Pick: #9 MINE THE COIN (10-1) Returned to the dirt last time out on June 25 at Belmont (this 6.5f distance and dirt) and had success running to a Place finish. Showed solid speed and against a fairly comparable field to today’s race. 2 races at this distance for Place and Show and has been best on all dirt conditions (10 starts/1w/2p/3s) vs. turf (0 for 2).  

Third Pick: #6 CONTINUUM (5-1) Steve Asmussen will put trusted Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard this colt. Good spot for Asmussen in 2nd start off layoff as well as the class drop today. 2 starts and 1 Win for this horse, the Win coming at 6f and finished 7th at 7f. We will see if 6.5f fits well today for a horse with solid pace to it.