Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 22

Solid opening Wednesday on these pages after a slow start to the day. Ended up hitting "1st pick" Winners in 5 of the 9 races. We hit the stone cold "1st/2nd pick" Exacta in 3 races ($1 for $11, $113 and $22). Add in another "1st/2nd Pick" Exacta box and a tri box in race 6.

All of our "Top of the Card" picks came back winners except one. FRONT MAN took the day, crossing the finish line first at 11-1 on the oddsboard. Looking for another good day of picks and exciting races at the Spa.

Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: ICE PRINCESS (8-5) STELLA MARS (3-1)

Best Value: SARATOGA KISSES (5-1) CHLOE ROSE (6-1)

Live Longshots: IRRESISTIBLE GIRL (12-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

NO PICKS

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 7-3-5

First Pick: #7 RECIDIVIST (4-1) Comes in from 3 month break but trainer Kelly Breen can prep ponies well from the layoff. 2 career starts for 1 Place result; with that race coming at today’s distance (6 furlongs) and surface (dirt). Jose Ortiz on the mount, we are in.

Second Pick: #3 WICKED MAD (2-1) Has whiffed the board in 3 career starts for trainer Steve Asmussen. Blinkers will be put on for a pony that is speedy amongst this bunch. We think Ricardo can lead him to his first result in the money.

Third Pick: #5 RUDY ROD (7-2) Another horse that has whiffed the board but will return to dirt for this race. Has run much better on the dirt and will get an upgrade with Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the mount.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 1/1A-5-2/2B

First Pick: #1/1A PAIRING (8-5) Solid pairing for trainer Wayne Potts, he will put Jose Ortiz aboard for the mount.

Second Pick: #5 PERSIAN QUEEN (10-1) We like this pony that is a little longer on the oddsboard. Has slowly improved throughout 2021 and has hit the board in her last two races (Place and Show). Willing to take a shot in a somewhat open field beyond the favorites.

Third Pick: #2/2B PAIRING (5-2) A pair of entries from trainer Linda Rice and Irad Ortiz Jr. will get the call.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 2-5-1

First Pick: #2 DANCING KIKI (9-5) Deserving favorite. One of the best speedsters among this group. She has had 3 starts at this 7 furlong distance (1 Win and 1 Show). Jockey Jose Lezcano has crossed the line first with this pony at 7f this year at Aqueduct.

Second Pick: #5 TENDERNESS (4-1) Has been no stranger to hitting the money in 8 career starts (2 Wins, 1 Place, 2 Shows). Has been fit on the dirt and should be ready off the claim for trainer Wayne Potts.

Third Pick: #1 COURAGEOUS GIRL (3-1) Whiffed in 4 starts at the Spa previously. We think this pony can hit the board here today. Jose Ortiz will be an upgrade at the reins and trainer David Donk does well in this claiming spot.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 10-4-9-8

First Pick: #10 PIZZA BIANCA (3-1) Going with trainer Christophe Clemente in this 2 year old turf bout. He puts Joel Rosario aboard for the debut of this filly; who is bred for the grass.

Second Pick: #4 EXPAND THE MAP (6-5) I will bite on a Chad Brown filly in her debut (on the turf). Irad Ortiz Jr. will take the reins as well.

Third Pick: #9 OFFICE ETIQUETTE (15-1) One of the only ponies that has trotted the post parade and entered the starting gate for real. Whiffed on the dirt (4th result) in debut. Gets Jose Ortiz aboard and could improve with the change of surface.

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 2-3-7-10

First Pick: #2 SARATOGA KISSES (5-1) Rudy Rod will put this filly on the turf for the first time. Hit the board in 1 of 2 dirt tries. Puts blinkers on today and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for this baby race.

Second Pick: #3 DERRYNANE (5-2) Christophe Clemente enters this 2 year old first timer here. Joel Rosario has been trusted recently for Clemente and he will get the mount here.

Third Pick: #7 QUICK POWER NAP (9-2) Another first timer in this baby race (there are a few). This filly appears to be bred for the grass and trainer Abreu has good 1st timer #s. Doesn’t hurt to have Jose Ortiz aboard as well.

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 2-10-6-9

First Pick: #2 IRRESISTIBLE GIRL (12-1) Another speedy horse but breaking the gate from the inside in this one. Luis Saez hops aboard and he tends to push to the front early. This pony has 1 Win and 1 Place in 3 tries at this distance as well.

Second Pick: #10 CHLOE ROSE (6-1) Class drop for this filly and Bruce Brown will bring her back to the dirt surface for this 6 furlong contest. We like the return to dirt and distance for this speedster on the outside post.

Third Pick: #6 QUANTITATIVBREEZIN (7-2) Could be a few good spots for trainer Brad Cox and this filly. Moves over to the dirt here and will drop down in class. Gets familiar jockey aboard with Manny Franco. Has been successful in 5 starts (1 Win/2 Place).

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 6-5-7

First Pick: #6 MIA MARTINA (3-1) We got a long one here on the grass (1 ⅜ m). Has been best on the turf in 5 starts on the surface (2 Wins/1 Show). Will get an upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. on the mount.

Second Pick: #5 LOVELY LUCKY (6-5) If she runs her best race/form, then she should win this one. Comes in off a 6 month layoff for this race. Jose Ortiz will hop aboard a pony that has experience at this distance (2 Starts/1 Win). Drops in class as well.

Third Pick: #7 LAGOM (10-1) Whiffed on the dirt and has found success in 9 turf starts (3 Wins/2 Places/1 Show). We like the switch to jockey Luis Saez here. We will take a shot for this pony to hit the board.

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 3-6-1A

First Pick: #3 ICE PRINCESS (8-5) Favorite here in this 1 ⅛ mile contest on the dirt. One of the only ponies with any experience at this journey distance (3 Starts/2 Place). Gets Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard once again.

Second Pick: #6 LOVE AND LOVE (3-1) Another horse that has run this distance (1 Start/1 Win). Has been running well in 2021 in 5 starts (2 Place/1 Show). Jockey Dylan Davis is very familiar with this Michael Miceli trained pony.

Third Pick: #1A PLAYED HARD (3-1) Square selections but these are the best of this bunch. Tyler Gaffalione will hop aboard after riding this filly to Win at Churchill last month (1 1/16m on dirt). She will move up in class here to ALW company.

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 12-4-7

First Pick: #12 STELLA MARS (3-1) One of the few in this group that have hit the board in their career. Joel Rosario takes the reins of a filly that has appreciated the grass more than the dirt in her career (4 Starts/1 Place/1 Show).

Second Pick: #4 SOCIAL WHIRL (7-2) Has whiffed the board in 4 career starts. Speed suggests it can run with this group and hit the board. Shorter 5.5 furlong distance should help this filly. She has fallen out of the money in the final stretch in 3 of those starts.

Third Pick: #7 DOROTHY’S THE BOSS (6-1) This filly has never raced on the grass but will drop down in class to try it. Will get Jose Ortiz aboard for the turf debut. Has good numbers from dirt career and solid recent work.