Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: CROSS BORDER (1-2), CRACK SHOT (4-1) and WILD MEGAGLIAD’ORO (5-2)

Best Values: LOST IN ROME (5-1) and O SHEA CAN U SEE (6-1)

Live Longshots: GO RUDY GO(15-1), UNICORN SALLY (12-1) and READ RACE 10

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

STEEPLECHASE (No picks)

I am going to spectate this first race. Hand up here, I have yet to watch a steeplechase race so I am not even going to pretend to handicap. Going to see what it is all about today. We will start our picks off in Race 2.

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 4-3-5

First Pick: #4 BRAZEN (6-1) This early speedster will move up in class here but also gets a major jockey upgrade to Jose O, who had a hot opening weekend at the Spa. Decent spot here for the trainer and this horse is 1 for 1 at this 6f distance after tiring at 6.5f in his debut race (2 career starts/1 Win).

Second Pick: #3 BOX OF CHOCOLATES (2-1) Last raced in May at Churchill but ran to Place in 7f race and will drop in class here. Pretty good spot here for trainer Robertino Diodoro, who will put David Cohen aboard here. This combo hit money twice and was on this picks page for both on Sunday. Successful horse in 16 career starts (1w/4p/4s). Just OK at this distance but has enough speed to overcome that here.

Third Pick: #5 STAR OF THE WEST (4-1) Comes in off a June 3 Win at Belmont in 6.5f race where it led the pack just about the whole way. Moves up in class here but has some of the best speed in this field today. Gets Irad Ortiz aboard and trained by Rudy Rodriguez who had a solid opening weekend at Saratoga.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 1-6-5-4*

#4 SCRATCHED. #6 Moves up and #5 Moves into Picks.

First Pick: #1 CROSS BORDER (1-2) Sorry, gonna do it here. This is a horse that is deserving of his heavy ML favorite status. Michael Maker trained and will get Jose O aboard here. 24 career starts with 7w/5p/1s. Has been very solid on the turf as well in his 15 races (6w/3p/1s). Has hit money at the STK level. Gotta be top choice and respected here.

Second Pick: #6 BLEWITT (2-1) Todd Pletcher will put this horse sired by UNCLE MO onto turf for the first time here. Solid connection with John Velazquez aboard and this horse has put up some of the better speed numbers in this field (though on dirt). Has 11 starts for 4 Wins and 3 Place finishes so there is speed and talent here.

Third Pick: #5 RAPT (12-1) Turf experience is solid here (25 starts/3w/4p/8s). Has also hit the money in 10 of 15 races at this distance. Lesser connections than others here but has a ton of experience on the turf and at this distance.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 8-4-7-5*

#5 SCRATCHED. #7 Will move up here

First Pick: #8 LOST IN ROME (5-1) Adds blinkers today for a horse who has some of the best speed in what should be a competitive field here. 4 career starts for 2 Places and 1 Show, has yet to snag a Win. Luis Cardenas will be aboard and was the previous 2 races to 4th and 2nd finishes. This horse has 2 Places in as many tries at this distance as well.

Second Pick: #4 BREES BAYOU (8-1) Will get Kendrick Carmouche at the reins, who isn’t a stranger to pushing out front early and that is a good pairing with this early speedster. Only 1 Show in 3 career starts (other two were 4th and 6th) but that Show came with Kendrick aboard last time and had front position early in the race. Only clunker was 6.5f where the horse tired after good position early.

Third Pick: #7 TENDERFOOT (4-1) Wilkes trained gets Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard here. Will be dropping in class here after 4th and 6th finishes in debut races. Santana Jr. will be an upgrade for horse in decent spot to improve off small layoff here.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 2-8-6*

#3 SCRATCHED here. #6 moves into Picks

First Pick: #2 CRACK SHOT (4-1) Small cutback here for this speedy colt (6f recently to 5.5f today) but it should matter. Takes the blinkers off in a good spot for trainer Jeremiah Englehart and should improve 2nd off the layoff. Hot jockey Jose O will take the reins, has hit the money 3 of the 4 races aboard. 6 starts on turf for 1w/1p/2s and 2 races at this distance for 1 Win and 1 Show.

Second Pick: #8 MAXWELL ESQUIRE (6-5) Good reason for the heavy ML odds. Both trainer Christophe Clement and jockey Joel Rosario are both coming off a successful opening weekend at the Spa. They’ve connected well by the numbers and Rosario will be aboard this colt for the fifth time (1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th previously). Drops down to the ALW level here plus has good enough speed and success on the turf in all 6 career starts (1w/2p/1s).

Third Pick: #6 GO RUDY GO (15-1) Fittingly trained but Rudy Rod and gets Alvarado aboard here. Has had better speed on the turf than the dirt. Comes in off win on turf at Belmont on June 13 (6f race)

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 4-8-7-3

First Pick: #4 O SHEA CAN U SEE (6-1) Experienced horse here with 31 career starts (5w/7p/5s) that hasn’t missed the money yet in 2020 either (5 races/2w/2p/1s). Gets trainer Linda Rice and jockey Jose Lezcano for third race here (Place and Show). Has posted best speed numbers in the last two races and has overall run this distance well in 9 races (4 Wins and 1 Show).

Second Pick: #8 SUMMER BOURBON (4-1) Rudy Rodriguez will put Junior Alvardo aboard this experienced horse (40 races/9w/7p/4s). Has hit the money 5 times in 9 tries at this distance and has had consistent speed numbers in 2020 to perform well today at 6f sprint.

Third Pick: #7 JUST RIGHT (9-2) Comes in off nearly year long layoff but trainer Todd Pletcher handles long layoffs fairly well by the numbers. Gets Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard a speedy horse who had good speed numbers to close out 2019. Has STK experience and cutback from usual distance should be a positive here. Solid in 11 career starts with 3w/2p/1s and that includes racing 5 STK level races (1 Show).

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 4-8-6-12

First Pick: #4 TWO CENT TOOTSIE (6-1) Pretty open field it seems in this race, no strong or heavy favorites on the ML. Jose O takes the reins of this filly again after riding to a Place last time out at this distance and surface. Rarely has had any clunkers in her career and has run best in 3 starts at this distance/surface (2nd, 4th, 2nd).

Second Pick: #8 UNICORN SALLY (12-1) Has consistent and solid speed on turf here. Another horse without many clunkers in her career of 6 starts (5th, 5th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th). She has also improved and posted best speed numbers in 2020 compared to 2019 (3 starts and 2 Places this year). Worth the shot at 12-1 odds and solid jockey Javier Castellano aboard here.

Third Pick: #6 GAELIC GOLD (5-1) As mentioned already, this jockey (Rosario) and trainer (Clemente) both had successful opening weekends at the Spa. This horse comes in off 3 month layoff from debut where it ran 6th at 1m on turf. Switches to much better jockey in Rosario here and should be able to improve the second time out here as well. Ran well late and gained after being bottled up early at 1m so stretch out could be positive here.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 2-4-5-6

First Pick: #2 WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO (5-2) A horse who has run well in turf starts (3 races/1w/2s) and comes into today’s race in good form, 3 for 3 in the money in 2020. Has solid speed on the turf and has 1 Win and 1 Show in 2 tries at this distance. Good fits all around for this horse trained by Mark Casse and getting John Velazquez at the reins today.

Second Pick: #4 SMILE BRYAN (9-2) Comes off a June 3rd Win at Belmont (1m on turf). Had Jose O aboard there and will again today for trainer Graham Motion. Successful in 14 start career (2w/4p/3s) and has ran well in his only 2 turf starts (1 Win and 1 Place both at ALW level).

Third Pick: #5 GANGUIN (4-1) This horse has great numbers hitting the money in 17 of 22 career starts (and all on turf). Only 1 win those 22 starts though (1w/7p/9s). Comes out of a good race and ran for Place on June 26 at Belmont (this distance/turf). William Mott trained and jockeyed by Junior Alvarado (4 races together for 2 Places and 2 Shows in recent starts).

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 3-8-6

First Pick: #3 SHARP STARR (5-2) This filly will move up in class here to ALW level but will do it with Jose O aboard for the second race in a row (Win at 1m on Dirt). Has yet to run this distance but improves and gains well during her races so the stretch out shouldn’t be an issue. Has hit the money in 3 of her 4 career starts as well.

Second Pick: #8 SINGULAR SENSATION (3-1) Jose Lezcano hops aboard one of the faster dirt horses in this field today. Should run better today in the second race off the layoff (ran for Place last time). Has yet to throw a clunker on the dirt in its career, 5 races with 4th, 4th, 1st, 2nd and 2nd results in those. Only horse with a race at this distance and had Place finish in that affair.

Third Pick: #6 PRINCESS PINKY (6-1) Michelle Nevin trained (good in ALW spot) and will get familiar jockey Manuel Franco aboard here (3 races/1w/1p/1s together). Has been solid in her 9 career starts with 1 Win, 4 Places and 1 Show. Look for this horse to show up well in this field here.

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 7-5-3-10

First Pick: #7 GRINGOTTS (12-1) Rider upgrade here to Joel Rosario for trainer Chris Englehart. Drops in class here and returns to dirt (ran 7th on turf last race). Has been much better and faster on the dirt in her 5 starts (1 Place and 1 Show). Went 0 for 2 in 2019 and has been a much improved horse in 2020. Should also improve in the second race off the layoff and dirt speed overall has been solid.

Second Pick: #5 CENTRAL PERK (4-1) Trained by Linda Rice who does a good job by the numbers in horse’s second career race (7th finish in debut). They will throw the blinks on and drop slightly in class. Jose Lezcano will be aboard again as well.

Third Pick: #3 LOTTIE’S MIZZION (12-1) Another horse getting a rider upgrade here, this time with Jose O. 2 Show finishes in 4 career starts for this filly but when you split dirt/turf it is a good sign for this horse long in the ML odds column. 0 for 2 hitting money on the turf but is 2 for 2 hitting money on the dirt. Improved well and had some kick last time out at 6f, the move to 7f should be OK here.

Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 22