Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 21

We are back for another meet at Saratoga. Watched most of opening weekend and it was exciting to see the Spa back in action. Already planning multiple trips to the area soon.

Steeplechase will open up the races on this Wednesday afternoon. Only having to survive 2 days without Saratoga races is a great feeling. We will skip that race and get into the picks in the 2nd. Few wide open races in the backend races but excited for another week of Saratoga.

Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: RUN CURTIS RUN (7-2) HIGHEST HONORS (5-2)

Best Value: TAKE THE BACKROADS (9-2) SHIRAZ (5-1)

Live Longshots: FRONT MAN (10-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

NO PICKS

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 4-5-6

First Pick: #4 DEMOCRATIC VALUES (6-5) Rudy Rod had a solid 2020 meet at the Spa and gets a talented horse who we think just had a tough Belmont meet. One of those clunkers was a route on the turf. This race is on the dirt (4 starts/2 Wins) and 6 furlongs (1 start/1 Win).

Second Pick: #5 MISSION WRAPITUP (6-1) Bruce Brown has been trying this gelding on the turf with only a Show in 3 starts. Returns to dirt and distance of it’s liking (11 starts and 6 moneys). Also will drop down a class here.

Third Pick: #6 COPE (7-5) Coming in from a 2 month break but has a Win and Place in 4 starts at this distance on the dirt. Tried at 1 mile last time out wasn’t successful but should be up front in this race and blinkers will be back on.

Race 3

*MOVED OFF THE TURF*

Ponies We Like: 1-9-5

First Pick: #1 COALITION BUILDING (1/1) Deserving favorite. Drops in class for trainer Chad Brown and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. on the mount. 2 month break for this filly but has only raced on turf in 5 career starts (1 Place/2 Shows).

Second Pick: #9 EVVIE JETS (3-1) Speediest horse of this bunch gets Lasix for this race. Trainer Anthony Dutrow does well with ponies on the drug first time. Should be upfront early in this one.

Third Pick: #5 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY (8-1) Joel Rosario takes the reins here. If a few of the speedsters push early, this horse could appear late. Hasn’t raced a route but we don’t think that will be an issue for this one in 1st race off claim.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 1-5-4

First Pick: #1 RUN CURTIS RUN (7-2) Won debut race in Belmont with Jose Ortiz aboard and will get him again today. He should be ready for trainer Michael Maker after the opening win followed by a good workout last week.

Second Pick: #5 READY A.P. (9-5) ML favorite here, also won debut race down in Belmont. Luis Saez will hop aboard again for trainer Christophe Clemente. Both jockey and trainer are looking to heat up in standings. Saez is currently tied with Irad for Wins after the first weekend.

Third Pick: #4 SURPRISE BOSS (10-1) Has hit the board in both career races, though against weaker talent (1 Place/1 Show). Speed isn’t far off from some of the horses at the top of the oddsboard. If he has any late gas, he could crash the party here.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 7-5-1

First Pick: #7 RAFFINITY (3-5) Another favorite tag for this filly, has failed in that role 3 times. Drops in class and gets Irad Ortiz aboard again here. Should be up front early among this bunch.

Second Pick: #5 GALLINA (4-1) If the speed breaks down at all in this 7 furlong contest, watch out for this James Bond filly to clean up. Gets Luis Saez aboard again after Place effort last month at Belmont.

Third Pick: #1 ELEGANT LAOBON (30-1) We will take a shot at this pony that is long on the oddsboard. Comes back to the dirt, where it has performed better and might be better fit with this shorter distance.

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 10-6-2

First Pick: #10 TAKE THE BACKROADS (9-2) Show result in her debut at Churchill last month for Thomas Amoss. Gets an upgrade to Jose Ortiz here and outside post here. Best speed in this race with the pony lining up next to her.

Second Pick: #6 LET’S BE CLEAR (7-2) Finished with Place result ahead of the pony mentioned above at Churchill downs last month. Had a nice kick late and will get Gaffalione aboard once again.

Third Pick: #2 MORNING MATCHA (5-1) Could be there late in this race. Gets Jose Lezcano aboard after a Show result at Monmouth in her debut last month.

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 6-2-4-12

First Pick: #6 FRONT MAN (10-1) Wide open affair in this race, bunch of ponies made the first cut. We will take a stab with a horse who hasn’t won much in career. He has been good at this distance/on turf in 3 starts with a Win and Place. Gets Joel Rosario aboard, he had the mount for that Place result last month at Belmont.

Second Pick: #2 FAIR HAIRED BOY (15-1) Another horse that is long on the oddsboard. Only 4 races in his career (1 Win) but has improved. Switching over to Tyler Gaffalione with the mount here. We will take a shot.

Third Pick: #4 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE (15-1) Has hit the money 3 times in 5 tries at this distance on the turf (1 Place and 2 Shows). Upgrades to Jose Ortiz at the reins. This pony has been better on the grass than the dirt in his career.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 6-12-7-2

First Pick: #6 SHIRAZ (5-1) Speedy horse here for trainer Michael Maker, he will call on Luis Saez for the mount. Luis likes to push to the front and that works for us in this 5.5 furlong turf affair. This horse has hit the money 3 of 4 tries at this distance/surface with 1 Win, 1 Place and 1 Show.

Second Pick: #12 FAST GETAWAY (5-2) Linda Rice will throw the blinkers on this horse with an outside position. Jose Ortiz is aboard and very familiar with this horse. Ran to Show last year at the Spa in a race at this distance/surface.

Third Pick: #7 ANALYZETHISANDTHAT (10-1) We like the record at this distance and surface. 5 starts with 2 Wins, 1 Place and 1 Show. Has been running well down in Monmouth and could crash the party at the Spa today.

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 3-5-7

First Pick: #3 HIGHEST HONORS (5-2) Ran for a Win at Belmont last month at a similar distance. And another Win last year here at the Spa at today’s distance/surface. Add in the Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz connections, I’ll bite.

Second Pick: #5 EMPTY TOMB (6-1) Class drop for this Michael Maker trained pony. Hasn’t won at this distance but has hit the money in 3 of 5 tries. Irad Ortiz will get the mount for a horse that should be upfront early with our top choice.

Third Pick: #7 AMERICAN DUBAI (10-1) Taking a stab with a horse that can clean up a collapsed pace. Can run with any of these ponies in this group. Last two races came at this distance/surface for a 4th and 1st.

Race 10

*MOVED OFF THE TURF*

**NEW PICKS: 1-3-11**

First Pick: #1 MOMMIE’S JEWEL (5-1) Another open affair in the last race of the day. Looking to break across the finish line first. Has 1 Place and 2 Shows in 4 tries on the grass. Jose Ortiz will hop aboard again after riding to Place at Belmont last month.

Second Pick: #10 TEMPESTA (6-1) Was on these pages last year (2nd Pick) and finished to Place result. We will go again with this 4 year old. Successful at this 5.5 furlong distance in 4 starts (1 Place and 2 Shows). Like the switch to Ricardo Santana Jr. at the reins.

Third Pick: #4 FAST GORDON (2-1) Dropping in class here for Linda Rice. Has Place and Show results in 4 starts on the grass. This horse can run with late gas among this bunch.