Most Likely Money: DEEP SEA (7-5), FINANCIAL SYSTEM (7-2) and CONTROL GROUP (4-1)

Best Value: QUEENS EMBRACE (6-1) and MILLS (8-1)

Live Longshots*: TALE OF MIST (15-1), RYAN’S CAT (20-1) and NOBLE THOUGHT (15-1)

*Based on ML odds

Race 1

Ponies We Like: 1-7-2

First Pick: #1 COUPLED ENTRY (9-5)

DOWSE’S BEACH (9-5) Another horse with solid connections, Michael Maker trained and will get Irad Ortiz aboard here. Second start under Maker and finished with a Show last time out at 6f on turf. Has really good speed like the 1A and should be dueling early inside.

1A SCRATCHED NEW YORK’S FINEST (9-5)

Second Pick: #7 BANANA THIEF (4-1) Comes in off a 7 month layoff for Asmussen and Santana Jr. combo.. Has been successful at this distance in 13 starts (2w/2p/3s). Has been solid in its career of 35 races (5w/7p/7s) and 32 of its 35 races have come on the turf. If this horse is ready to go it can challenge the pair of 1s on the inside post.

Third Pick: #2 POWER UP PAYNTER (6-1) Not really many clunkers in this horse’s career, on turf or dirt. Returned to the turf last time out for trainer Linda Rice and ran to a Win at Belmont. Gets the very familiar Jose Lezcano aboard here (6 races together, 2w/2p and 4th finish). Going to move up in class here but has been in great form and this is a good spot second of the layoff for Rice.

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 5-8-7-2

First Pick: #5 DEEP SEA (7-5) Heavier favorite here on the ML and it is deserved (31 starts/7w/9p/2s). Solid connections with Rudy Rodriguez and Jose Ortiz aboard here. Jose O has ridden the last two times out and both finishes were to a Place result and posted some great speed numbers in both. Has 5 races at this distance and 3 moneys in those. All around a good spot here.

Second Pick: #8 TALE OF MIST (15-1) Live one here potentially. Young rider Luis Cardenas at the reins for Randi Persaud. Not overwhelming on connections but has posted good speed with Cardenas before and has a ton of experience. 46 starts in this horse's career and has seen the money 25 times in those (4w/8p/13s). 8 races at this distance to 5 moneys and 18 for 35 on fast dirt. Could crash the party here at 15-1 on the ML.

Third Pick: #7 HARDCORE FOLKLORE (6-1) Comes out of the same Belmont race as our top pick here and ran to a Show just behind that top pick. Trainer has solid spot numbers in second starts with trainer and will get Dylan Davis aboard again (was aboard for the Show). 4 starts at this distance with 1 Win and 2 Places.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 1-3-4

First Pick: #1 DOVIMA (6-5) Back to back heavy favorites but another horse with the connections, spot and make up that make it deserving of the odds. Will be racing on the inner turf and has Chad Brown training here with Jose O hopping aboard. Great connections and the spot fits as well for this horse’s second career race and second on grass. Flashed good turf speed to a Place result in debut, should be upfront again here.

Second Pick: #3 HALO CITY (8-1) Trained by David Duggan but in a decent spot here for 2nd off layoff numbers. Will put Kendrick Camouche aboard who tends to push out front if possible and is very familiar with this horse (5 races together, 3 Places, 4th and 6th). Will only be its second race on the turf and was only narrowly kept out of the money in its turf debut (4th finish).

Third Pick: #4 IN FRONT (2-1) Rosario aboard here for a respectable trainer. Going to be a cutback to 1m here (last few races have been longer) and that should likely be a positive. All 5 career starts have come on the turf (1 Place and 1 Show). Has the speed here to be a factor and the cutback will help in that as well (often in the money at Stretch pole).

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 6-3-5-2

#3 SCRATCHED. #5 and #2 move up here

First Pick: #6 TWELFTH LABOUR (5-2) Two favorites are ahead of this one but they have failed as favorites recently. We will go with the third choice on the ML, trained by Robertino Diodoro and he puts Cohen aboard. Solid spot for Diodoro 1st after claim and shipping in here. 17 career starts for 2w/2p/4s for a horse that will be dropping in class here and posted the best speed numbers among the field in their previous race.

Second Pick: #5 RELEASETHETHUNDER (2-1) Slightly behind the #3 and ahead of #6 on the ML oddsboard. Joel Rosario will ride for trainer Clemente here. This colt has rarely thrown in a clunker in its career. Also failed as a favorite last time out and ran to a Show in that race. Loves this 6f distance with 8 starts (2w/2p/3s) and will be coming into 2nd start off layoff as well.

Third Pick: #2 RYAN’S CAT (20-1) With the scratch we will move this long shot up here. Comes in with 4 months off but will get Kendrick Carmouche aboard in this 6f sprint. Has 2 starts for 1 place so far in 2020 and has hit money in half of its career starts (10 races/2w/3p).

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 4-1A-8

First Pick: #4 THIN WHITE DUKE (3-1) Comes in as one of the few with racing experience in this field and the only one with money on its resume. 2 starts and 2 Shows for this horse trained by Gleaves and will get Manuel Franco aboard as he has taken the reins in the first two races as well. Moves from the dirt to the turf but pedigree suggests that move is alright.

Second Pick: # 1A MISCHIEVOUS DREAM (9-2) First timer here for trainer Christophe Clemente and will get top tier rider Gaffalione aboard. Pedigree looks like grass and this type of sprints could be a good spot for this filly. Trainer has solid spot numbers here for this debut on turf.

Third Pick: #8 COMPETITIVE HERO (7-2) Was the favorite in its debut and ran to a 4th result and was beaten by our top pick here and also the 2-1 MTO option in this field. Moves over to the turf for trainer Brad Cox and that spot looks good here. Both the pedigree and trainer spots look good on the numbers. Gets Javier Castellano aboard here as well.

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 5-9-10

First Pick: #5 FINANCIAL SYSTEM (7-2) We are on the turf here at the Spa and Chad Brown is the trainer. Check please. Some further evidence, this horse has run 7 times on turf for 3 Wins, 2 Places and 1 Show along with 5 races at this distance (2w/2p). Great spot all around here for this Chad Brown horse. Comes off a Win in an ALW race on turf at 1 3/16m. Has had Castellano aboard for three in a row (1w/1p/1s) and will run it back again today on the reins.

Second Pick: #9 KROY (7-2) Comes up from Florida for trainer Danny Gargan and gets Manuel Franco aboard. Overall very solid history with 22 career starts (7w/5p/2s) and 15 starts on turf, hitting the money 9 times. Bit of a stretch out, will be its second race at this distance but did get a warm up (finished 4th in that race).

Third Pick: #10 NOBLE THOUGHT (15-1) This one could be live here. Formerly trained by Michael Maker, comes in off fresh claim for Kantamarci (21% and 46% in the money for that spot). David Cohen will be on the reins for this horse who comes in off a Win at Belmont (1 1/16m on turf). Ton of career experience for this one, 33 starts to 10 Wins/8 Places/5 Shows. Hasn’t missed the money in 3 starts this year and beat two in this field last time out. Am I missing something? Willing to be wrong at 15-1 odds on the ML.

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 9-4-1

First Pick: #9 LUCIFERS LAIR (5-2) Todd Pletcher will be debuting this filly from the sire of QUALITY ROAD. Puts Irad Ortiz aboard here for a horse with some real good pedigree. Pletcher is also great in this spot, 23% wins with first timers and 52% in the money.

Second Pick: #4 CALDEE (6-1) Brad Cox trained and gets Castellano aboard here for some solid connections. Cox is good in this spot and this horse comes from a STK level Dam so pedigree is solid here for this sprint.

Third Pick: #1 IAINTFRAIDANOGHOST (3-1) Gets Jose O aboard here in this 5.5f baby race. Zero race experience among the entries. Pedigree suggests sprinting and first timer starts are in good spots for this filly. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart also wins at 19% with first timers.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 5-2-8-4

First Pick: #5 LIGHT IN THE SKY (9-5) Slightly behind the #4 horse on the oddsboard here. Formerly trained by Linda Rice, this horse has been solid on the turf in 3 starts (1 Win and 1 Place). Has some of the best speed in this field on the grass as well. Fresh of a Place result on turf at 6f and beat out the #4 in that race as well. Had Jose O aboard last time and will again today.

Second Pick: #2 SARATOGA LOVE (7-2) A name for the Spa. Trained by Clemente and gets Rosario aboard here for the third race in a row (1 Win). Has improved from her 2020 debut to its 2nd race (8th then Win) so should be able to keep that form today. Moves up in class here but has some real solid speed on the turf (4 starts/1w/1p).

Third Pick: #8 OFFICER HUTCHY (8-1) We will go with a horse trained by Linda Rice here on the turf. This will be this horse’s first run on the grass and gets Jose Lezcano at the reins for it (4 races together for 2 Wins and 1 Place). Good spot for Rice in this second race off the layoff and we will trust the move to grass here for this filly.

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 4-8-3

First Pick: #4 QUEENS EMBRACE (6-1) This horse has moved to turf almost full time in 2020 and has come with some great results, 4 races with 3 Wins and 1 Show. Gets Tyler Gaffalione aboard and this filly has been all around successful in her 8 career starts (5w/1s). Will be moving up into STK level here but has posted some real nice turf speed that says she should be able to handle it.

Second Pick: #8 CAT’S PAJAMAS (5-2) Another horse moving up in class for this STK race but this isn’t a field of crazy experience on the STK front. Comes out of a against our third choice in this field, had Velazquez aboard then and will today for trainer Graham Motion. Has had 2 races and 2 Wins on turf after whiffing in her 2 starts on the dirt in 2019.

Third Pick: #3 LASHARA (4-1) Only 3 career races for 1 Win and 1 Place. Whiffed on dirt in her debut and has now cashed twice in a row on the grass. Gets Castellano at the reins and is trained by Mark Casse here. Was beaten by our second choice here but that run should be good warmup for today and slightly longer distance shouldn’t be an issue at all. Seemed to have some late kick last time out.

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 2-7-8

First Pick: #2 CONTROL GROUP (4-1) Comes back to the dirt and will do it with a top tier rider aboard in Irad Ortiz. Trained by Rudy Rodriguez, this horse has been consistent on the fast dirt (21 races/5w/5p/3s) and even better at this distance (13 races/5w/1p/3s). Has shown much better speed on the dirt and it will be the second start and second off the layoff for Rudy Rod, which is a solid spot by the numbers.

Second Pick: #7 MALIBU PRO (5-2) Roberto Diodoro will ship this gelding in and usually shows up well by the numbers in that spot. This horse has some solid speed on the dirt and has been good in his career, 23 starts on fast dirt to 7 Wins/3 Places/5 Shows. Not much experience at this distance but has almost only raced over 1m distances so only going to be a slight stretch out here.

Third Pick: #8 MILLS (8-1) 70 career starts for this horse trained by Edward Barker. Yes, 70 starts and he has hit the money in 36 of those. Dirt or turf this horse has a nose for finding cash. Really solid at this distance as well in 8 races (1w/3p/2s). Has continued its success into 2020 as well, 6 races (3w/1s). Gets jockey Eric Cancel aboard for the fifth consecutive race (3 Wins and a 4th finish).

Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 19