Most Likely Money: GUFO (5-2), DIGITAL AGE (2-1) and MIDNIGHT WHISKEY (7-2)

Best Value: BREAKTHROUGH (6-1) and ARCHUMYBABY (8-1)

Live Longshots*: CATCH THAT PARTY (10-1) and FLOWERS FOR LISA (12-1)

*Based on ML odds

Race 1

Ponies We Like: 5-3-1

First Pick: #5 HOLLAND (4-1) Going to Asmussen and Santana Jr. combo here in this opening baby race on Saturday. Hardly any experience in this race and this horse has 1 race for a 6th place finish. Trainer is solid in this spot with a 2nd timer and this class spot as well. Puts trusted rider Santana Jr. aboard in a 5.5f sprint.

Second Pick: #3 MO MISCHIEF (9-5) The ML favorite here as a first timer. Trained by Todd Pletcher and he will put Velazquez aboard here. Comes from a winning pedigree and looks like a sprint race should be a good spot as well. Pletcher also has solid numbers with 1st timers and especially at this class.

Third Pick: #1 BAJA RUM (6-1) Another horse with some pretty solid winning pedigree coming into its first race. Gets the talented Jose Ortiz aboard here and inside post. Solid workouts and pedigree should let this horse have a good run among today’s inexperienced group.

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 1-3-6

First Pick: #1 MR. KRINGLE (4-5) Heavy favorite here on the ML odds but we think it is deserving in this field. Will drop in class here, one of the only horses with STK experience in this group. Just finished to a Show in STK race last time out and should be the class of this race. No stranger to the money in its career of 7 races with 1 Win/2 Places/3 Shows and has continued that success this year with solid form, 4 races/2 p/1 show.

Second Pick: #3 WINNING FACTOR (7-2) Jose Ortiz aboard the horse that likely has the best chance at challenging the heavy favorite here. Has hit the money in just over half of its 14 career starts (1w/3p/4s) and has been hot in 2020 with 8 races/1w/2p/4s. Moves up in class here but that shouldn’t be a problem for this horse who has some great speed on the turf and can close ground quickly down the stretch.

Third Pick: #6 CATCH THAT PARTY (10-1) Has only one race (a Win) in its career at 6f and on turf. Will be stretching out here from that debut Win at Belmont that looks like it was quite competitive. Not a great field and dropoff after the #1 and #3. We will take a chance at this horse stretching out well today in this spot.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 5-7-1-3

#5 has been SCRATCHED. Picks now 7-1-3 in that order

First Pick: #5 GUFO (5-2) Has only raced on turf in its 5 career races and with a ton of success at that (4 Wins and 1 Show). His 2020 form is fantastic with 3 Wins in 3 tries, this horse has yet to not “bring it” in a race and has hit money in STK level competition. Gets Cohen aboard here for the first time but has seen 3 different riders and seems to succeed no matter what. Play on

Second Pick: #7 DECORATED INVADER (1-1) Heavy ML favorite here and for good reason. Has hit money in 5 of 6 career starts including 4 Wins in that along with 2 Wins in 2 tries this year. Gets Joel Rosario aboard for 3rd straight race (2 Wins previously) and has very good speed on the turf. This horse should be in the money today.

Third Pick: #1 DOMESTIC SPENDING (7-2) Chad Brown trained, on turf and at Saratoga. An all around great spot here for a horse that has raced only 2 times and with 2 Wins. Top tier rider Irad Ortiz aboard again here (was for the last race). Coming into 2nd race off layoff (good spot/numbers) and will be stretching out slightly here but has raced 1m in its 2 tries (1 1/16m today).

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 5-7-2

First Pick: #5 ARCHUMYBABY (8-1) Gonna look to beat the 6-5 ML favorite here. Gets top tier rider Gaffalione aboard here and Orlando Noda trained (just picked up a Win yesterday with VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD). Going to be moving up in class slightly but has run with some great speed in recent starts. Like a lot of this field, tons of experience and has hit money in its career (40 races/13w/5p/8s). Has been great at this 6f distance as well (18 races/5w/2p/3s).

Second Pick: #7 LETMETAKETHISCALL (4-1) Comes in off a Show in its first race off March layoff. Trainer Orlando Noda is pretty good in spots after claiming and coming into 2nd race from layoff. Will put OK rider at the reins, Dylan Davis. Has hit the money in 15 of its 24 career starts (8w/4p/3s) and has yet to miss the money in 5 tries this year (1w/2p/2s). Has the early speed to potentially be outfront quickly in this one and does well in that position.

Third Pick: #2 LADY BY CHOICE (5-1) Solid connections here with trainer Michael Maker and jockey Irad Ortiz. Has some great speed on the dirt and has run to 2 Shows in as many tries this year. Also has only run in sprint distance races including 13 starts at 6f for 5 Wins, 1 Place and 5 Shows.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 5-6-3-4

First Pick: #5 MATTY’S MARAUDER (8-1) Has two races in its short career with 1 Show last time out (on turf at 7f). Looks like a decent warmup for this turf race at 1m distance and against a fairly inexperienced field overall. Also, ran on dirt in debut to 7th finish and followed up with that Show on the turf.

Second Pick: #6 OAK HILL (3-1) Gets Castellao aboard here for Albert Stall. Ran to a Place in its first race (on turf at 5.5f). Stretches out to 1m here but seems to have some of the better speed and on turf among this field.

Third Pick: #3 SUMMER TUNE (6-1) Has had 2 career starts thus far and both on turf for 1 Place and 1 Show. Improved in terms of speed from debut to his second race. Gets a new Jockey aboard here in Lezcano and will be putting blinkers on as well.

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 8-3-6-5

First Pick: #8 BREAKTHROUGH (6-1) Gotta notice when Wesley Ward puts Gerardo Corrales aboard. They’ve connected for 29 races in the last 60 days, hitting the money 52% of the time and delivering a Win 29% of the time. This horse is one of the best speedsters in a race with inexperience all over and Placed in turf debut (2 races/1p/1s).

Second Pick: #3 NAUTILUS (7-2) Like the horse above, improved in its 2nd race after its debut. Got the same 4th place finish but ran with much better speed than debut and at 6f (was at 5f in debut). Both of those were on dirt and moves to the grass today. Trained by Brad Cox and will be ridden by Castellano today. Blinkers are coming off for today and Cox has hit money often in that spot.

Third Pick: #6 ZIPPY BABY (5-1) Going with three horses that have run before in a race with some first timers. Has 2 career races, one on dirt (Place), one on turf (Place) and both at 5f. Ran with better speed on turf and improved position throughout both races, the stretch out to 1 1/16m shouldn’t be too much of an issue today.

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 3-1-2

First Pick: #3 BLINDWILLIE MCTELL (5-2) Love the name here but this is one of three in this race that seem to be clearly above the rest. 3 Wins and 2 Place results in 8 career starts so far, will be coming off a 5th finish in first start off the layoff. Trained by Linda Rice and will be ridden by Jose Ortiz today so will be in good hands. Has hit the money in 2 of its 3 races at this distance as well (only miss was last race).

Second Pick: #1 YAUPON (2-1) Saw this horse race at Churchill back on June 20 where it ran to a narrow win at 6f. Steps up here but has a ton of talent and some good connections. Trained by Steve Asmussen and he will put Joel Rosario aboard here. Inside post here for a horse that showed some solid speed in that debut.

Third Pick: #2 BLINKSTER (5-2) Showed some good speed last time out in June (first race off February layoff). That was an ALW race but has STK experience under its belt and money (2 Races with a Show and 4th finish). Has hit the money in half of its 20 career starts (5w/4p/1s) as well as in half of its 6 starts at this distance (2w/1s).

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 1-3-8-9

First Pick: #1 HOFFENHEIM (8-1) No stranger to hitting the money in 23 career starts (4w/4p/8s). Almost all of those races have come on dirt. Small class drop here (still resulted in Show last time) for this horse that should improve in its second start off the layoff (good trainer spot here). Was bested by our next pick in that last race.

Second Pick: #3 CREATIVE STYLE (3-1) Class drops here today and has 2 Wins in 4 races in 2020 so far. 19 career starts for 4w/3s/3p along with 17 races on the fast dirt with 10 money races. Connections are OK and this horse gets jockey Eric Cancel (2 races and 1 Win) aboard again.

Third Pick: #8 FLOWERS FOR LISA (12-1) Could have a live one here. Good spot for trainer Robertino Diodoro here bringing in a SHIPPER in his 1st start with Diodoro and 2nd off the layoff. Respectable David Cohen will take the reins as well. 49 career starts for 12w/11p/6s. Is 0 for 1 in 2020 but this trainer hit 25% Wins 2nd off layoff and 58% in the money. This one could crash the party today.

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 7-2-6-8

First Pick: #7 DIGITAL AGE (2-1) All around looks like a great spot for a real solid horse. Great connections with Chad Brown training (on turf) and Irad Ortiz will take the reins. Notable that Ortiz has been aboard for 4 of this horse’s 5 money races in its career. Has 3 Wins and 2 Places in 9 starts all on turf. Good chance for a strong showing in his 2nd race off the layoff.

Second Pick: #2 RAMSEY SOLUTION (4-1) Another horse in this race with some strong connections. Wesley Ward will put top tier rider Gaffalione aboard here. Coming back from 54 days off but spot is OK here. 2 Wins in 3 turf starts and overall 3 Wins and 1 Place in 5 career races.

Third Pick: #6 SET PIECE (8-5) Good chance for this STK experienced horse to continue to improve in 2nd race off layoff for trainer Brad Cox. Puts Rosario aboard but overall good spot numbers for Cox here. 7 starts in this horse’s career for 4w/1s with 4 of those starts on turf (1w/1s). 1 Win in 1 start this year as well.

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 6-1-5-3

First Pick: #6 PARIS LIGHTS (2-1) Took this horse in her runs at Churchill and like her again today in the step up to STK level. Gaffalione will ride for a fourth consecutive race (whole career for this horse) and with success 3 races/2w/1s. Handled last step up in class without a hitch (ran to Win) and could do the same here today.

Second Pick: #1 TONALIST SHAPE (9-5) Favorite here on the ML but simply cannot ignore this horse’s 6 Wins in 7 starts. Going to be putting blinkers on here and gets Irad Ortiz at the reins (2 races, 2 Wins together). Has solid speed and will get the inside rail (plus blinkers as well). Good spot.

Third Pick: #5 CRYSTAL BALL (4-1) Another horse that will be stepping up into STK level but has hit money in both career races with 1 Win and 1 Show. Showed some impressive speed in her last race and gets Javier Castellano aboard here. Good spot numbers here for trainer Bob Baffert bringing this horse from the West Coast and for a STK race.

Race 11

Ponies We Like: 4-10-7-9

First Pick: #4 MIDNIGHT WHISKEY (7-2) Slight favorite on the ML here in fairly tight and inexperienced field. Has 2 races and no money but last time out was a 4th finish and he was nosed for the Show. Showed better speed in 2nd race than in debut and that is a good sign for this Asmussen trained horse. Will have Joel Rosario aboard for the second race in a row.

Second Pick: #10 TOP OF THE MINT (5-1) Will get Jose O aboard here for the first time and is coming off a 4th place finish. There haven’t been any clunkers in this horse’s 6 career starts (3rd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 4th, 5th). Should be able to improve in its 2nd race off the 2019 layoff here.

Third Pick: #7 PAPA LUKE (4-1) Comes into this race after a Place result in his last race on June 27 at Belmont (6.5f on dirt). Showed much improved speed and form from his May debut. Good sign as Velazquez will hop aboard here in a sprint.

Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 18