Saratoga Picks & Analysis July 17

Most Likely Money: Leaveuwithasmile (8-5) and Passing Out (7-2)

Best Value: Brunate (6-1) and Universal Payday (6-1) 

Live Longshots*: Lake Chicot (20-1), Please Flatter Me (8-1) and Quick Return (8-1)

*Based on ML odds

Races 5 & 10 moved from Turf to Main Track

Race 1

Ponies We Like: 6-5-3

First Pick: #6 VALUE ENGINEERING (1-1) I am going to respect the heavy ML favorite here at 1-1. Hasn’t missed the money in its 5 career races (2w/2p/1s) and all of those came on the turf. Chad Brown trained and Castellano aboard so the connections fit as well. Has also had Castellano at the reins for all 5 career races. Solid spot all around here. 

Second Pick: #5 BUNDIBUNAN (7-2) Jose Ortiz aboard here for a horse that has turf experience (9 races/2w/1p/2s) and will be stepping down in class. Will take the blinkers off and will be 2nd off the layoff (Show result in last race at CD). Has a STK level race this year and that is only race with shaky performance. 

Third Pick: #3 GO POKE THE BEAR (8-1) Solid connections here with Michael Maker and Gaffalione at the reins. Hasn’t had the sharpest form in 2020 (4 races/1w) but gets hot jockey and has a ton of turf experience (all of its races on turf as well). 14 races with 3w/2p/2s. Despite recent form, at 8-1 odds should be a good value in a fairly even field after the favorite. 

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 10-1-11-7

First Pick: #10 BRUNATE (6-1) This horse has 6 career races and only 1 Place but that was last time out and against a similar looking field to today. Should be a strong rider upgrade to Gaffalione here as well and will slightly stretch out to 7f. Ran to Place at 6f and improved throughout the race there. 

Second Pick: #1 DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT (2-1) Early speedster and ML favorite gets the inside draw here. Fairly solid connections with Gargan and Cohen, trainer Gargan has good numbers in this spot. Small drop in class after running to 4th (as favorite) in last race which was 6f on turf, gets move back to dirt today where it has run to 3 Shows in 4 tries. 

Third Pick: #11 IMPERIO D (8-1) Was beaten by #10 horse in last race out and has run well at 6.5f vs. 6f. Today is a 7f race so the small stretch out should be just fine for him. Respectable connections with trainer Rudy Rodriguez and Franco at the reins. Solid play here if the odds stay in this neighborhood as well. 

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 1-4-3

First Pick: #1 UNIVERSAL PAYDAY (6-1) This connection just won yesterday with a 30-1 longshot. Gaffalione (upgraded here from previous races) is aboard for Michael Trombetta at a less juicy price but a solid horse at that. 6 career races and hasn’t missed the money yet (1w/2p/3s). Has really good speed and could determine the pace early if ready. 

Second Pick: #4 THE ROCK SAYS (3-5) Fairly strong favorite and great resume to date but has also failed to Win as favorite in the last 4 races. Rider switch to David Cohen here for Diodoro trained horse who will be putting the blinkers back on. Solid spot and numbers for today from Diodoro and with a horse who has 9 races in its career for 1w/3p/4s. 

Third Pick: #3 FIRST RATE (5-1) Will be facing better foes today than last race out (Place at 1m on dirt). Has 4 career races for 1 Win and 1 Place but both of those came on dirt after whiffing 0 for 2 in turf races. Gets a top rider in Irad Ortiz who has ridden this horse to a Win before. 

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 4-2-1-8

First Pick: #4 PICK UP THE FONE (6-1) Comes off strong performance and Win in May for trainer Todd Pletcher. Gets Jose Ortiz aboard for a horse with some of the best speed in the field today. Successful career in 10 starts for 2 Wins and 4 places. Strong connections here and Pletcher has good numbers in this spot as well. 

Second Pick: #2 LEAVEUWITHASMILE (8-5) Fairly heavy ML favorite but is deserving of it. Hasn’t thrown any clunkers in its 8 career races and 3 Wins (never worse than 5th). Really good speed on dirt and has the inside post for a trainer that handles 2nd races off the layoff well. Respectable jockey in Alvarado at the reins.

Third Pick: #1 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE (3-1) Going to be moving up in class here with Joel Rosario aboard. Improved throughout 3 starts in 2020 and ran to Win last time out. Only poor performance has been on turf and otherwise has 2 Wins in 3 tries on fast dirt and 1 Win in 3 tries at this distance. 

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 5-2-7

*MOVED TO MAIN TRACK*

First Pick: #5 TOO EARLY (2-1) Coming in off 6 month layoff but with move to the main track, this horse has a chance to best this field. Last race was December 2019 on dirt at 1m and ran to solid Place in that start after whiffing on the turf in previous 2 career starts. If this horse is ready to go it is no doubt a contender here in this pack. 

Second Pick: #2 VOLIERO (9-2) Has improved in every race of its career of 4 races (1w/1p). Manuel Franco aboard again and has been for all of this horse’s starts. Exits a race in which he ran to Place against a similar field and 1m on turf. This gelding has only run on turf in it’s 4 career starts. 

Third Pick: #7 SCUTTLEBUZZ (5-2) Going to be stretching out here after 3 starts under 7f. This will be his second turf race in a row after Place last time out with Castellano at the reins and will be again today. Has had a solid closing kick in each of its races and could be in good spot in 2nd turf race and 2nd race off the layoff. 

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 3-8-7

First Pick: #3 MISSION WRAPITUP (5-2) Early speed and strong speed in general from this horse and 5 moneys in 11 career starts. Strong connections with trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano as well. Warmed up on June 14 off the layoff with a STK level race (6th finish) but Win and Show in starts back in winter time. Slight class drop and 2nd race off layoff is a good spot here. 

Second Pick: #8 BIG THICKET (8-5) Another horse with some solid speed in this field. Lot of experience with 35 starts and has hit the money in 18 of those. Real nice form in 2020 with 5 races and 1 Win/2 Places and at this distance in 2 races with 1 Place/1 Show. Gets top rider Irad Ortiz at the reins for trainer Rudy Rodriguez here. 

Third Pick: #7 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD (7-2) Has hit money with 3 Places in 4 starts in 2020 so comes in with great form. Franco will take the reins for the third consecutive race and has run at 6.5f and 1m in the last two starts. Settles in between those at 7f for this race. Has been consistent at 1m and sprint races as well. 

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 3-1-4

First Pick: #3 PASSING OUT (7-2) Third choice on the ML odds for this class dropper here. This horse has had a hard time avoiding the money in 8 career races (3 Wins and 3 Shows) and all of those have been on turf. Strong horse at this distance in 5 starts with 3 Wins and 1 Show. Gets Jose Ortiz at the reins once again after Show last time out. 

Second Pick: #1 CATCH A BID (9-2) Another horse here with strictly turf races in it’s 5 career starts (3 Wins/1 Place). Strong connections here with Gaffalione taking the reins here for the Chad Brown trained horse. Along with solid turf experience, this horse has ran to 2 Wins at this distance. 

Third Pick: #4 CLARA PETERS (5-1) Slides up the picks board here and should be a factor in this race. *#9 BLOWOUT was a morning scratch*

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 3-2-6

First Pick: #3 LADY LAWYER (3-2) Heavy favorite and attention on the ML but this is looking deserving for this horse. Has hit the money 5 times in its 6 career starts. Chad Brown trained and he will put Rosario aboard this horse. Has real speed and from the inside here. 

Second Pick: #2 OLENDON (5-2) Another Chad Brown entry here coming out of 48 days off. Irad Ortiz aboard for a strictly turf horse in its career (10 races/2w/2p). Hasn’t raced this distance yet but past races say the cutback shouldn’t be an issue. 

Third Pick: #6 TURF WAR (3-1) This FORMER Chad Brown entry that runs on turf really well (8 of 9 career races and 5 money in those 8). Coming off a 9 month layoff and into her first race with a new trainer. Will be class dropping here and at a distance she has 2 races and 1 Show at. 

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 9-10-2-5

First Pick: #9 BLAMED (7-2) Won’t be surprised to see this horse catch the money and attention today. Has 9 wins and 2 Places in 15 career races. Tough to ignore 9 wins in the career. Gets top tier rider in Irad Ortiz who has ridden this horse to 2 Wins in the past. Slight cutback here should also help this successful mare. 

Second Pick: #10 PLEASE FLATTER ME (8-1) Comes into this one with some interesting spots and connections that we like. Trained by Steve Asmussen and trusted Santana Jr. at the reins. This will be the 2nd race with trainer Asmussen and 2nd off the layoff so there should be improvement here from the last race. Finished with Place in the last race and had Santana Jr. aboard there as well. Has been successful overall in 8 career races (4w/2p) and at this distance with 3 moneys in 4 tries. 

Third Pick: #2 RISKY MANDATE (9-2) Ran to a Place as the favorite in her last race on June 28 at CD (6f on dirt). Has respectable connections with trainer Thomas Amoss and Cohen aboard here. Solid spot for this trainer today. She is a quick horse and can get to the front quickly in this two turn race at 7f today. 

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 3-15-11-14

*MOVED TO MAIN TRACK*

First Pick: #3 SHARED SUCCESS (5-1) Brad Cox trained horse could be in a great spot to improve in his 2nd start this year and 2nd try on the turf. Has hit money twice (2 Places) in 4 career races. Exits turf route where he finished 4th but was leading throughout and at stretch mark. Today is slightly shorter here at 1 mile which should be helpful.  

Second Pick: #15 QUICK RETURN (8-1) Switch to means a switch in picks here. This horse ran to Place in only race of his career on June 28 at Belmont (6f on dirt). Beat the #11 horse (and also a pick) in that contest. Small stretch to 7f shouldn’t be an issue here for this horse.  

Third Pick: #11 TRUE GRACE (8-1) Was favorite in the last race but finished with a Show in that start. Gets the familiar Rosario aboard for the fourth consecutive race (2 Shows in 3 starts together). Another horse who should improve in the 2nd race of 2020 and the cutback of distance should help him too.