The week at Saratoga will kick off with a Steeplechase contest followed by 8 regular races. Hoping to build off 3 solid days last week. Hit the board on 63% of our picks and my 1st Picks hit the board in 20 of 25 races as well. Good card here today to start the week and lets start out hot.

Top of the Card Picks:

Most Likely Money: ASSUME (6-5) and LET THEM EAT CAKE (3-1)

Best Value: WHO KNOWS WHAT (5-1) and CHARLOTTE WEBLEY (6-1)

Live Longshots: ISLAND COMMISH (15-1)

^Based on ML odds

Race 1

No picks for Steeplechase

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 5-3-1

First Pick: #5 SNICKET (5-2) Returns to the dirt for trainer Christophe Clement and will get Joel Rosario aboard for 4th straight race (3 Places but on turf). Has speed and ability to translate back to the dirt here with success.

Second Pick: #3 BANKERS DAUGHTER (9-2) Whiffed in only turf start and has hit the board in 3 of 5 tries on the dirt for trainer Michael Miceli. Has also run this 6f distance 4 times in her career with 2 Place results. Gets familiar jockey Dylan David aboard (6 races for 4th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd, 5th and 2nd).

Third Pick: #1 MUNNINGS MUSE (6-5) Comes in off year layoff for this race. Ran to Place result in her debut at Belmont in 2019. Had good speed numbers in that race and gets top tier jockey Irad Ortiz aboard here.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 3-5-4

First Pick: #3 COILEAN BAWN (5-2) Comes out of race last time out at this distance (1 3/8m) and surface (turf) with Show result. Trainer Christophe Clement will put trusted Joel Rosario aboard for this race. Rosario has ridden this filly 3 times for 1 Win, 1 Place, and 1 Show.

Second Pick: #5 SETTING THE MOOD (4-1) Like our top pick, this horse with solid connections, trained by Todd Pletcher and gets Jose Ortiz at the reins. Has 4 career starts with 1 Win and 2 Places. On the turf, this filly has 3 starts with 2 Places. Slightest stretch out here but the connections are trusted in this spot.

Third Pick: #4 CAP DE CREUS (2-1) Another Todd Pletcher trained horse here and will get John Velazquez aboard. Most career starts in this field with 15 races (1w/6p/1s). Has 3 tries at this 1 ⅜ mile distance with results of 2nd, 4th and 5th. Hasn’t won on the turf but has hit the board in 6 of 11 races on the grass.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 8-2-6-3

First Pick: #8 WHO KNOWS WHAT (5-1) Lots of inexperience in this 6f baby race on the dirt. This Michael Trombetta trained horse has Show in only career start (5f on dirt). Will get a big upgrade at jockey with Irad Ortiz hopping aboard for this race.

Second Pick: #2 DASH TO THE TOP (3-1) This filly also has 1 career start and Show result in that debut (5.5f on dirt). Has some of the best speed numbers among this field on the dirt. Had Ricardo Santana aboard in debut and will again here.

Third Pick: #6 BOLD ARTICLE (8-1) Drops down in class and posted good speed numbers in her debut race. Ran to 5th place but that was on turf and at 1m distance. Gets a big upgrade at jockey with Tyler Gaffalione aboard.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 3-9-4

First Pick: #3 CHECKSANDBALANCES (3-1) Ran to Show last time out at this distance (1 1/16m) and surface (turf) at Saratoga on July 30. We had this filly as a 2nd Pick then and will be top pick for this race. Trained by Chad Brown and gets the only jockey she has had aboard in her career with Irad Ortiz. 2 career starts both on the turf with 5th place (1m) and Show (1 1/16m).

Second Pick: #9 KITTEN’S ROMANCE (2-1) Beat out our Top Pick in that July 30 race and had Place result by a nose. Trained by Wesley Ward and will get Jose Ortiz at the reins. 2 career starts (both on the turf) for 1 Place and 1 Show.

Third Pick: #4 DIPPING IN (6-1) Will be stretching out beyond 1m for the first time here but has some of the best speed on the turf among this field. Gets top tier jockey Joel Rosario aboard for back to back races (3rd place in 5.5f turf race last time out). Has been a much better horse in 2020 (4 for 7 in the money) compared to 2019 (0 for 4 in starts).

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 3-2-5-4

#2 SCRATCHED. Picks now: 3-5-4

First Pick: #3 ASSUME (6-5) Trained by Michael Maker and will get jockey Irad Ortiz aboard for this 6f race on the dirt. Has solid speed and usually flashes out front early. Lone try at this 6f distance was last time out and ran to Win with good speed numbers in that race. Has hit the board in 3 of 4 career starts (1 Win and 2 Shows).

Second Pick: #2 GRUDGE (5-1) Drops down in class for this race and will get upgrade at jockey with Jose Ortiz aboard. Pushes out front early in most races but will be trying the first for the first time. Ran only 5f-6f races on the turf and hit the board in 3 of 7 races.

Third Pick: #5 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY (6-1) Was on Picks page but scratched on July 30. Has early speed for this 6f sprint and jockey that is not hesitant to push the pace early with Luis Saez. Will move up in class from last start but has 1 Win and 1 Place in 4 career starts. Has run this distance 3 times with 1 Win and 1 Place.

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 8-6-10

#10 SCRATCHED. Picks now: 8-6-9

First Pick: #8 MAVEN (5-2) Will move up in class for this race but has flashed some of the best speed on the turf among this field. Has 1 Win in 2 starts at this 5.5f distance. Trained by Wesley Ward and will get Irad Ortiz at the reins here. 4 career starts with 3 Wins in those and 2 Wins in 3 tries on the turf.

Second Pick: #6 ISLAND COMMISH (15-1) Live one here. Gets upgrade at jockey with Joel Rosario hopping aboard. Has hit the board in 5 of 9 career starts and 4 of 7 on the turf. Consistently pushes to the front early but in 7.5f and 1m or further distances. Shortening up here looks like it could be a good fit for this horse.

Third Pick: #10 TURNED ASIDE (2-1) Will drop in class for trainer Linda Rice and gets familiar Jose Lezcano aboard here (6 races together for 3 Wins, 1 Place and 1 Show). Has early speed and on this turf surface. All 7 career starts have come on the turf for 3 Wins, 2 Places and 1 Show.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 3-4-5-1

First Pick: #3 CLARA PEETERS (7-2) Narrowly beaten out in her last race on July 20 at today’s distance (1m) and surface (turf). Was on the Picks page then and will be again here. 13 of 15 career starts have come on the turf for this filly (3 Wins, 4 Places and 2 Shows). Has flashed good speed on the turf for trainer Brad Cox.

Second Pick: #4 BLOWOUT (9-5) Will shorten up and drop in class today for trainer Chad Brown. Gets jockey John Velazquez for 3rd race in a row (Win and Place in last two). Comes in off 10 month layoff but hasn’t missed the board 8 career starts (all on the turf) with 3 Wins, 4 Places and 1 Show.

Third Pick: #5 CATCH A BID (5-2) Another Chad Brown entry that has only raced on the turf in 6 career starts (3 Wins and 1 Place). Drops down in class and has shown well at this 1m distance with 2 Wins in 3 starts.

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 8-7-3-4

First Pick: #8 LET THEM EAT CAKE (3-1) Will get jockey Joel Rosario for back to back races here following a Place finish in 5.5f sprint on turf last time out (today’s distance and surface). Has some of the better speed numbers among this field on the turf and has hit the board in 2 of 3 tries on the grass.

Second Pick: #7 DIAL ME UP (6-1) Moves onto the turf for the first time in her career (2 Places in 2 starts on the dirt). Trained by Christophe Clement and gets top tier jockey Irad Ortiz aboard again for this race. Showed early speed on dirt and if that translates to turf, this filly should be towards the front here.

Third Pick: #3 ADMAS (4-1) Going with a 1st time starter here for trainer Chad Brown. Has posted solid workouts and has breeding that caters to the turf (along with the best trainer at this meet so far). Top tier jockey Jose Ortiz will take the reins for this one as well.

Saratoga Picks & Analysis August 26