Race 1

Ponies We Like: 6/8-4/5

First Pick: #6 COPPER KING (5-1) Be prepared to hear this pair a few times today but I am all about the Asmussen/Santana Jr. combo and this is the first spot of the day. This horse has the best resume in the field, 12 races under its belt to 5 places and 4 Shows (all at MSW class). On top of the career success, this distance has been good (8 races/5p/2s) and 2020 form is solid (7 races/3p/1s). Santana Jr. has been aboard 7 races and 5 moneys in those. Won’t be surprised if this horse turns into the favorite, play on please.

Second Pick: #8 LOOKING AT LIBERTY (3-1) Slight favorite on the ML odds. Has run 2 races in its career for 2 Places. Graham was aboard for both and will be again today. Could be towards the front of the pack as there isn’t overwhelming speed in this field. This horse should be right in thick of things throughout the race. Stretches distance out slightly here but don’t think that will be much of an issue.

Third Pick: #4 CIVIL SERVANT (4-1) Has yet to win money in its career but has finished 6th, 4th and 4th. One of those runs came after a stumbling start and has been able to improve into the late stages of every race. Stretch out could help here for a horse that can be in the front pack early. Rider change to Hernandez Jr. for this Wilkes trained horse.

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 9-10-4

First Pick: #9 THERIDEOFALIFETIME (3-1) Favorite in this baby race where only 2 of the 13 entries have raced. Ran to a Place in 5f sprint on June 19 at CD. Was speedy early in that sprint and should set up well for this one as well. Has solid pedigree from CANDY RIDE.

Second Pick: #10 DIRECTIONAL (8-1) Asmussen trained 2 year old in a sprint is always a good combo and even better when you put Santana Jr. aboard as well. Good at the sprints and a go to guy for Asmussen. Great spot here and wouldn’t be surprised these odds drop to 9-2 range.

Third Pick: #4 SNAKE DOCTOR (8-1) Has solid numbers for average pace in its pedigree along with solid Win%. Gets the experienced Flavien Prat aboard here as well.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 9-10/1-5-3

First Pick: #9 CROWN JEWEL (3-1) Another race, another pick for an Asmussen/Santana Jr. horse in this 6.5f sprint that could be a blazing race. This horse has the speed out of the gate to set pace early and is almost always in front of the pack quickly. In good 2020 form, has Won at 6f and Placed at 7f (only 3 career races) in back to back races. Spot seems to fit here and wouldn’t be surprised if these odds get bet into.

Second Pick: #10 NAYIBETH (8-1) Like most of the field, an early speedster that can be out front quickly. 2 races in 2020 and 1 Place. Last time out was the first race off a 2 month break so should be improved here and the cutback from 7f to 6.5f likely will help. Ward trained horse puts familiar Corrales aboard here. Solid play especially if these odds stay in this neighborhood.

Third Pick: #1 TIPSY GAL (6-1) Lost to #9 horse in April race at 6f (by almost 7 lengths) but has been successful overall in 2020 (5 races/1w/1p/2s). Cutback here from the previous two races should be beneficial as well (1 1/16 and 7f in last two), this horse is always in money contention at the last pole. Gets top tier rider aboard here in Gaffalione along with inside post in what should be a speedy race.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 4-3/6

First Pick: #4 ALMS (6-5) Heavy favorite already on the ML odds but this is likely deserving. This horse has only raced on turf and to a dominant 4 Wins in 5 races in its career, has 2 Wins in 3 tries at this distance and 1 Win in 2 races this year. Like I said, there is a reason for the 6-5 odds. Gets top tier rider Rosario aboard here as well and should have the speed to be towards the front throughout.

Second Pick: #3 EVIL LYN (3-1) Another horse who has success on the turf (3 races/3 Wins). To contrast, she has 7 races on dirt for 1w/1p/2s. Formerly trained by Brad Cox and now Michael Maker, will have Gaffalione aboard who is often picked by Maker (116 races together). Has speed to be at the pace early as well and toward the inside (#2 not a speedster next to her).

Third Pick: #6 WALK IN MARRAKESH (9-5) Also on the heavier side of the ML odds only slightly behind the favorite. Strictly a turf horse and has success in its 9 career races (3w/3p/1s). Will get an outside post here to run early.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 7-9/5-8

First Pick: #7 MIA MISCHIEF (3-1) *THIS IS A RECORDING* Asmussen trained horse with Santana Jr. aboard again. On top of the good connections, Santana Jr. has taken reins of this horse 9 times in 2019 and 2020 for 5w/1p/1s. Ton of experience for this one with 22 career races (10w/6p/2s) and majority of those races at STK level including a G2 STK Show here at KEE last year. Handles this distance well and should up front here from outside.

Second Pick: #9 AMY’S CHALLENGE (8-1) Last ran in April to a Place behind #7 horse. Ton of speed on this one and might even be setting pace early (consistently 1st at the 1st pole). Will get a top tier rider here as well with Rosario at the reins. Has hit the money 12 times in 15 career races and comes in with solid form in 3 races (2 Places) so far this year.

Third Pick: #5 GUARANA (1-1) Chad Brown trained horse comes in off Win at 7f distance but against AOC level competition (last STK race was September 2019). High class and rated horse here though and needs to be respected (as the ML odds suggest). Switches back to Ortiz at the reins, who has ridden for all it’s STK races. Hasn’t missed the money yet in its career of 5 races (4 Wins and 1 Place).

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 9/2-7/1-8

First Pick: #9 TEXAS WEDGE (6-1) I am a fan of seeing Prat on the reins for a Peter Miller trained horse. Especially when it's a talented one here (16 career races/6w/3p/3s). This horse has also been just as impressive at this distance (6 races/3w/2p) and on the turf (11 races/4w/2p/1s).

Second Pick: #2 WILDMAN JACK (5-2) Ton of speed here for a horse that has rarely missed the money in its 8 career races for 4w/2p/1s. All of those 8 races have come on turf as well. Should be a pacesetter here in a quick 5.5f sprint. Has 2 STK level races and 2 wins already, both this year. Could catch some money here but it is a bigger field of entries.

Third Pick: #7 FAST BOAT (8-1) Stepping back into STK level after a Win at AOC level on June 12 coming off February layoff. Speed and form seemed solid in that race but there will be better in this field. Has hit money in all 3 STK level races and almost always has Beschizza aboard as well. Experienced turf horse (17 races/7w/1p/3s). Hoping other horses in this field get attention and these odds stay in this neighborhood.

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 2-6/3-4

First Pick: #2 VENETIAN HARBOR (6-5) Heavy favorite on the ML and worthy of it in this smaller field of 6 horses. Has run to 2 Wins/2 Places in 4 career races and 1 Win/1 Place in 2 races this year. Great form and also gets Rosario aboard here, only been ridden by Prat and Rosario which says something. Has the ability to lead this field wire to wire or close to it.

Second Pick: #6 SPEECH (2-1) Next in line after the ML favorite and that is about right. Less STK level experience than the favorite but still impressive in 6 career races (1w/4p/1) and has Placed in all 4 races this year. Also has Placed in both STK level races in her career. Has speed and class to be in money here.

Third Pick: #3 BONNY SOUTH (5-1) Ran just behind the pack and into a Win last time out in its first STK level race. Brad Cox trained and he puts Velasquez aboard here. 2 Wins in as many races in 2020 and has 3 Wins in its career for 4 races. Distance should be just fine here and a good chance to break into money.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 4-8/6-2

First Pick: #4 RUSHING FALL (6-5) Steep price on the ML but for good reason. Has done almost nothing but win and all on turf in its 12 career races (9 Wins/2 Places) and this distance as well (4 races/3w/1p). Chad Brown trained and Brown has two entries in this field. He is putting Castellano aboard here, which is telling with their 227 races together. Worthy of the ML odds.

Second Pick: #8 TOINETTE (5-1) Strong turf horse as well in its career (11 races/8w/1s). Prat has been aboard for 8 of the 12 career races, hitting the money in 6 of those races. 2 for 2 (2 races and 2 Wins) at this distance and ran to Win last time out as heavy favorite. Looks like a contender.

Third Pick: #6 JOLIE OLIMPICA (5-2) This horse comes in from a Santa Anita meet that yielded 2 Wins and 1 Place in 3 races there this year. Hasn’t missed the money in its career (6 races/5w/1p) and all of those have come on turf. Will be stretching out to above 1m here and hasn’t raced this distance but has a lot of speed.

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 7-10/8-3

First Pick: #7 SWISS SKYDIVER (3-1) McPeek trained horse will put Mike Smith aboard again after win at the G2 Oaks on June 6. Beat out SPEECH in that race and VENETIAN HARBOR in race before that, both are strong contenders in earlier races today. Run in 5 races in 2020 for 3 Wins and 1 Show with those 3 wins all coming in a row recently. This horse has speed and even better form coming into today’s race.

Second Pick: #10 RUSHIE (5-1) No shame in running to a Show behind HONOR AP and AUTHENTIC last time out at the Santa Anita Derby. First STK level race of its career and a real good showing at that. 4 races in 2020 for 2 Wins, 1 Place and 1 Show with the Show effort coming at this distance and that race mentioned above.

Third Pick: #8 BASIN (8-1) Alright alright, last time we will call on Asmussen/Santana Jr. on these pages today. . This horse has 6 career races for 2w/2p/1s and Santana has had the reins in 3 of those races for 1w/2p. Has also hit the money in 3 of its 4 STK level races. Should have speed to be in the thick of things among a talented field here.

Race 10

Ponies We Like: 2-7/3-10

First Pick: #2 SUMMER IN SARATOGA (9-2) Cashed on this horse last time out when it ran to Win at Churchill on June 19. Hasn’t run this distance but has almost only run over 1m races consistently and seems to stalk the pack. Ran well in back to back races since dropping from STK level to ALW races. Had Lanerie aboard the last two races and will again here (has been good aboard this horse).

Second Pick: #7 MIGHTY SCARLETT (12-1) Live one here at 12-1 odds on the ML. Just too much experience at this 1 3/16th M distance (3 races/2 Places). Formerly trained by Chad Brown and has a solid turf record (12 races/2w/2p/2s). Improved from the first race of 2020 (6th) to its second race (3rd) and the second race was a rider switch to Hernandez, who is aboard today. Could be a nice upset play here.

Third Pick: #3 ROMANTIC PURSUIT (7-5) The ML odds favorite here and gets top tier rider for second straight race in Gaffalione (Place last time out). This will also be the second race running under trainer Brendan Walsh as well. 12 career races for 2w/5p/2 and turf success has been similar (9 races/2w/4p/1s). Has speed to potentially be leading or near leading the pack early on in this race but it is a route here.

Keeneland Picks and Analysis July 11