Race 1

Ponies We Like: 5-4-6

First Pick: #5 FAUCI (5-2) Baby race here, one of the few with any race experience. Rode to a Win with good speed throughout in 5f race. Gaffalione aboard there and will again for Wesley Ward. Good early speed and could kick out to set the pace here like in the first race. Moves to turf here.

Second Pick: #4 RUSTLER (8-1) Has a race and ran to Show in 5.5f Turf race. Had Lanerie aboard there and will again. Nice value here with its experience and that it has hit the money. Good ratings and should be able to sit in the pack here.

Third Pick: #6 FROSTED PRAYER (15-1) Another one of the few with a race under their belt here. Ran to 7th last time out but will get rider switch from Baze to Santana Jr. (Good in sprint) Very familiar combo with trainer Asmussen and Santana Jr.

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 3-7/1-11

First Pick: #3 FLASHING RED (7-2) Other than last race, is usually the front of the pack early. Still finish to Show in that race after stumbling out of the gate. Gets Geroux aboard again for a horse in good form this year, 3 races/2p/1s. Hasn’t missed money in its career and looks right near the top of this group.

Second Pick: #7 JEWELED PRINCESS (5-2) Has run well this year and against decent fields at Churchill meet. 5 races with 1 Place and 1 Show thus far and will get Hernandez Jr. aboard for third race in a row. If early speed tires, this horse can sit outside pace and take advantage late.

Third Pick: #1 MALIBU ANTHEM (9-2) Only one race in career but ran to Place at 1 mile. Had good speed and pace with Gaffalione aboard, trained by Brendan Walsh as well who have decent connection. Inside position could mean this horse is out early in front with #3 horse.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 9/1-4-6

First Pick: #9 PYRON (3-1) Talented favorite here in a speedy group of horses. Asmussen puts his guy aboard here, Santana Jr. Good connection and spot. Ran to Place in last race (4th finish in first 2020 race). Was 7f last time out and should set up well for this quicker track and race here.

Second Pick: #1 HOLLY BLAME (9-2) Had rough start out of gate in its opening 2020 race last time out and still ran to 4th. Good at this distance in 5 races/1w/2s and will get Joel Rosario aboard. Inside post so will be able to save ground and sit on the pace with a speedy bunch here.

Third Pick: #4 THE GREAT DANSKY (9-2) In solid form this year with 2 wins in 4 races. Good connections as well, trained by Brad Cox and has Geroux aboard. Will be stretching out a little bit but has success and ability to be off pace here and in thick of it.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 7-8/1-9

First Pick: #7 STEALTH (5-2) Slight favorite here on the ML but is strongest here. Stepping down and has faced better. 4 races this year has Place (this came on step down). Good connections with Wilkes/Leparoux aboard. Rode this horse to a Place in last race out (nearly Won), that was at 1m but small stretch out shouldn’t be an issue here.

Second Pick: #8 EMBELLISHER (10-1) Nice odds on the ML here but not sure this horse stays there. Was gelded on Mar 2 and followed it with Win on June 20 at CD. Was a 6.5f warmup for this one and horse has pretty good speed. Good value here.

Third Pick: #1 QUARTERBACK DAK (5-1) Terrible name but that doesn’t make it into the handicap. Opened its career this year and has hit money in all 3 races (1w/1p/1s). Win came at this distance in its last race on a wet fast surface. Inside post can help save ground and this horse has some speed to it.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 10-9/5-2

First Pick: #10 CONFESSING (5-1) Going to this connection again, Asmussen puts Santana Jr. aboard a horse he has ridden 4 previous times (1p/2s). All of those on turf and 1m or longer as well. 2 races in 2020, February race ran poorly and finished 5th in June race. Improvement and what looks like a rider upgrade here, good spot.

Second Pick: #9 LADY OXBOW (6-1) Really strong turf horse here with 9 races for 2w/2p/2s. Gets Mena aboard who is having great 2020 thus far. 2 for 2 in the money at this distance as well. New trainer here after last race in Stakes level.

Third Pick: #5 MORNING GOLD (8-1) Poor race last time out but on the turf and its first race of 2020 from layoff. This horse has hit money in 3 of its 4 races (1w/2p) and raced in Stakes level races. Cutback should be helpful here and horse should be right in pack of tough Allowance level race here.

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 8-1/6-4

First Pick: #8 APRIL IN PARIS (4-1) 2 races this year so far, opened with 4th finish then followed with Show last time out. Pace and speed improved in second race out and keeps Talamo aboard here. Cutting to 7f should help this horse who ran that Show at 1m but was leading at last pole. Maiden race here with limited experience and first timers, this one is a contender for the front.

Second Pick: #1 MOVIE MOXY (9-2) Only one race in career for a Show on June 20 at 6f. Solid pressing speed and pace in that one. Gaffalione aboard once again in what could be an improved run and from the inside post.

Third Pick: #6 NORMA JEAN B. (20-1) No flashy connections here but ran in same race on June as #1 horse and placed 4th there. Has speed figures and ability to run with this field. At these odds, could be a nice payout and play. Especially in field of inexperience here.

***Analysis of races 7-9 will be added shortly. Picks are set without write up***

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 11-5-9/3

First Pick: #11 MORAL REASONING

Second Pick: #5 FASHIONABLE LADY

Third Pick: #9 ELLA BRILLA

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 8/3-10-6

First Pick: #8 DOS VINOS

Second Pick: #3 FIGURE IT OUT

Third Pick: #10 CLUB CAR

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 8-7/1-9

First Pick: #8 FORTUITY

Second Pick: #7 ALFONS WALDE

Third Pick: #1 PINTXOS

Keeneland Picks & Analysis July 9