Race 1

Ponies We Like: 3-6/2-9

First Pick: #3 AMERICAN HUMOUR (5-1) Only 1 career race to speak of and it was a Place in a 7f race at CD June 4. Closed well, even in sloppy track conditions, in that race and on the inside rail. Gets inside position today but will be extra two turns here. Favorite in this race (#9) is coming in from an August 19 layoff.

Second Pick: #6 BEAVER HAT (7-2) Like this horse most behind the ML favorite (#9). Class drop, small step down within Maiden Claiming level, where this horse ran to a Show in June 5 race at CD (1m on dirt). In races on dirt 1m or longer this year: 4 races with Place, 4th, 4th, Show results. Has speed to be running well and towards the front.

Third Pick: #2 CERNAN (4-1) Won’t be surprised if this Steve Asmussen trained horse catches money on racing day. 3 races at this distance with 2 Shows in those. Last two races haven’t been great but last race came off 2 month layoff and against better. Gets Rosario aboard here as well, good connections.

Race 2

Ponies We Like: 1/6-3/4

First Pick: #1 HEAVENS WHISPER (1-1) Sure, this horse is steep at 1-1 as ML favorite here but this horse is worthy of the heavy price. Clearly the class of this field here, has early speed and inside draw as well. Has been just dominate in its career (29 races/13w/5p/5s), at this distance (12 races/5w/2p/3s) and 2020 form has been great in 7 races with 3w/2p/1s. Really strong favorite here and that success has come at this class level.

Second Pick: #6 OVER THE BLUES (9-2) Might have a little less speed than some in pack but has good showings in ALW and AOC level races (3 races/1w/1p). Also had bumpy start out of gate two times ago and still finished with Place. Lifetime has 4 races (2w/1p). Also has 2 Wet Dirt races with a Place in one of those.

Third Pick: #3 SUNSET PAULA JO (12-1) Worth a play here on a potential live longshot. 2020 form hasn’t been great (3 races to 11th, 7th and 6th). Was off slow or to a bumpy start 3 of last 4 races, with clean break of gate, she has the speed to run with most of this pack. Has 20 lifetime race for 5w/2s and 9 races at this distance for 2w/1s.

Race 3

Ponies We Like: 6/8-9-10

First Pick: #6 PATTY H (3-1) Field has limited race experience with 5 of the 11 entries being 1st timers. Ran to a Show in its only race which was at 5f but looked solid through the stretch to the wire. Brad Cox trained horse will go from one quality rider to another here, had Geroux aboard and now gets Rosario.

Second Pick: #8 PUYE TIMING (6-1) Ran well despite placing 5th in this race, it was 5f and was running strong through the wire (along with #10). Added distance shouldn’t be an issue here and horse will be adding blinkers. Between #6 and two solid looking 1st timers, this horse could stay at good odds. Had Leparoux aboard last race and will again here for trainer Norm Casse.

Third Pick: #9 SPUN D’ETAT (5-1) Two well connected 1st timers running today, #9 here is trained by Thomas Amoss and gets Gaffalione aboard here (#3 has Asmussen/Santana Jr. connection). Looks like its workouts have been very solid. Could break into money here in its 1st race.

Race 4

Ponies We Like: 5-1/7-6

First Pick: #5 FLYING THE COLORS (9-5) Has some great turf experience (4 races/3p) and 2 of those Places have come in 2020 (1 of those at this distance as well). Gets Joel Rosario aboard here and in a field with no overwhelming early speed, sets up nicely for this horse to stalk the pack and close late. Took a strong wide bid into Place (PHOTO for 1st) in last race on May 30 at CD (turf at this distance). Play on this horse here even with heavier odds already on ML.

Second Pick: #1 FATE FACTOR (7-2) Another horse here with more experience (and quality experience) on turf (5 races/3p) than most of the field. Has early speed/pressing ability and inside draw here to save ground if needed. Solid run last time out for Place on turf (1 1/8m so slightly longer) nearly nosed out the Win. Ran to 5th in other 2020 race so recent form is solid.

Third Pick: #7 I HEAR YOU (10-1) The ML odds are good value for this horse but we will see if she closes at that good value. 1 race in her career to a 5th finish on May 30 (on turf and this distance). Gets a rider upgrade here with Gaffalione now aboard for Michael Stidham trained horse (284 races for dist/surf: 21%). Second race could be better than first start, especially if she stalks the pack well again.

Race 5

Ponies We Like: 1-2/4-11

First Pick: #1 DARK WEB (5-1) Ran very well last race on June 7 at CD, was a 7f race on dirt like today. Placed 2nd by nose and had a solid final turn into the stretch. It has been all money for this horse in 2020 with 4 races (3 Places and 1 Show). Also, impressive 2 Places in 2 races at this distance so spot fits here. Lost by a nose last time and good chance this horse breaks into the winners circle today.

Second Pick: #2 INIS GLUAIRE (6-1) Also was in June 7 race with the #1 horse and this horse took Show a couple lengths behind #1 here. Gets Santana Jr. aboard here and is trained by Asmussen. Solid connections and improvement from 1st race (6th) out to 2nd race (Show) is a good sign. Inside post should help save ground with it’s early speed.

Third Pick: #4 SAVVY (9-2) First run in 2020 came on June 20 at CD, ran to a Show after a slower start out of the gate. 3 career races under its belt for 1 Place and 1 Show, these came at 6f, 6.5f and 6f. Impressive to Show after layoff from November 2019 and like this horse to continue that form here today.

Race 6

Ponies We Like: 2-7/11-9

First Pick: #2 GREYES CREEK (3-1) The ML odds favorite along with the #9 horse. This horse ran to nearly 4 length win last time out on June 12 at CD (this distance/turf). Connections are strong here which might cause this horse to catch money, Chad Brown trained and gets Gaffalione aboard (was riding last time for Win). 2 races on turf, both this year, ran for 5th (was first race since Nov. 2018) and ran to Win last race. Quality horse and won’t be surprised if it closes favorite and hits the money/winners circle.

Second Pick: #7 ELUSIVE RULER (10-1) Live one here at some great odds. 5 of 6 career races have come at MSW, breaking into ALW last time out for Show on turf at longer 1 1/16m. 1 Win and 3 Shows in career along with 2 races on turf for 1 Win and 1 Place. Also gelded on April 25 and has run in money on turf over 1m in back to back races (Win and Show). Landeros aboard for every career race and again today (solid connection with Wilkes). Play on here for this live one.

Third Pick: #11 ATTORNEY TIM (20-1) Another fairly live horse here at longer odds. Don’t like this one as much as #7 but from this outside post, it could sit and make run late. Has had 2 races in 2020 and a Show in one of them. Has raced longer than 1m with success but has gone 0 for 3 at this distance. 7 races over turf in career to 1w/1p/1s.

Race 7

Ponies We Like: 11-3/7

First Pick: #11 LNGTERMRELATIONSHP (6-1) Value with these ML odds. Gets outside post here and has solid form in 2020 so far in 5 races with 1 Place and 2 Shows. Pretty impressive at this level and distance (8 races/1w/4p/1s). Gets a top rider aboard as well in Gaffalione. Horse has hit money in 17 of its 27 career races as well.

Second Pick: #3 FRA MAURO (8-1) Another horse in good 2020 with valuable odds, 5 races this year for 1w/1p/1s. Has run these level and higher with success. Santana Jr. will be riding this horse for 6th race in a row and for a good connection, Asmussen. The experience and success at this distance is solid, speed could take well from inside also.

Third Pick: #7 FATHER G (4-1) Dropping in from ALW level races lately. Warm up race this year ran to a Show at 7f. Slight stretch out today by usually runs 1m distance and well (3 races/1w/1s). This horse should be right in the thick of things in this race.

Race 8

Ponies We Like: 2-9/10-8

First Pick: #2 MAVEN (7-2) Really talented horse here with strong pedigree. Coming off a layoff from last July but tough to deny 3 career races with 2 Wins and one of those at STK level (both of turf). Has the early speed and if in form can take lead out of the gate on the inside. Only issue is if another horse vies for early lead, could open door for others to jump in late.

Second Pick: #9 RACE DRIVER (8-1) This is a stalking horse with enough speed to jump the pack late if a few get too excited in pissing contest early. Solid 2020 form in 3 races with 1 Win and 1 Show and 2 races to 1 Win at turf/this distance. Recent runs and results suggest this horse will be ready for this spot.

Third Pick: #10 DIGITAL (3-1) Lack of turf experience here but has outside post and speed here in sprint. Drop in distance could be helpful as well. 1 Win and 1 Place in 4 races this year but no runs on turf or this distance. Lifetime has been successful and solid connections here Calhoun and Hernandez Jr. (All 6 career races had Hernandez Jr. aboard)

Race 9

Ponies We Like: 11/5-1/8-10

First Pick: #11 SPICE ROAD (3-1) Fairly open race but this is strongest of the pack and gets upgrade to a top rider in Gaffalione. Was gelded prior to 2020 season and has produced a Show and 4th finish. Has speed here to get in front of this sprint from outside post, also gets blinkers here. 8 career races (all dirt) with 3 Places and 4 Shows. 3 races/1p/2s at this distance as well Wise to play this horse here in this spot.

Second Pick: #5 BOSS LIFE (8-1) Going route to sprint here and drop in distance might help as always in pack, especially at shorter poles. Open race here after the #11 but this horse probably best speed, though no money in 2 races on dirt. Dale Romans trained and puts Talamo aboard.

Third Pick: #1 SECOND LINE DAVID (8-1) Another fairly valuable horse here and distance drop might be helpful. 4 races on dirt with a Place and Show in those, which all have come this year. Last two races were poor but hopefully the cutback can help today.

Keeneland Picks & Analysis July 8